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Showing posts sorted by date for query St. George. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Ironman Kona Qualifying Times: Comparing 30 Ironman Races



By Raymond Britt -- What finish time do you need to qualify for Kona? It depends on the race you choose, your age group, the number of Kona slots allocated to your age group. Because Ironman races can vary significantly in terms of difficulty, Kona qualifying times can vary widely by race as well.

We've done the analysis to develop the most comprehensive Kona Qualifying Times and Slots analysis on the web, ranging from top-level summary tables to drill-down detail, by race and by age group. We've conducted this analysis annually, and will present stats for 2013, 2011 and 2010 here. If you want to qualify for Kona, these are the times you need to beat. [Also see Ironman Races, Locations, Dates, Kona Qualifying Slots by Event, for the 2013 Season]

Kona Qualifying Times, Slots, and Faster Times by Age Group

More than 2000 athletes register for the Ironman Triathlon World Championship in Kona, Hawaii. For most, it's an incredible feat to earn the right to race in Kona.

Of more than 75,000 competitors in 30 Ironman races and 6 Ironman 70.3 events, only about 1800, or 2.5%, will qualify to race with the best of the best, in Ironman's premier championship race.

We're not sure why the World Triathlon Corporation (an excellent and inspiring team that I'm privileged to consult for) has decided to keep many results private.

So we publish here Kona qualifying Times, Slots, and Change in Qualifying Times for the select races willing to share their results. Some terrific performances in these races, and congratulations to all qualifiers. For complete qualifying times for 2011 and 2010, they are further down this post.


The biggest challenge of all: qualifying times are getting faster, in most age groups and most events. On average, qualifying times dropped around 2%this year. That means for example, if it took 10 hours and 30 minutes to qualify in your age group, that 2% improvement means you'll need to finish 13 minutes faster to qualify next year.


In previous years, we presented complete Kona Qualifying Times and Slots comparisons for all Ironman Triathlons in 2011 with some updates for 2012. In preparing the analysis for those posts, we were able to access data for all events.

Unfortunately, this year Kona Qualifying results have not been released for most races on the calendar. Some European and Asia/Pac events proudly shared Kona results; all North American races did not.


Kona Qualifying Races and Times by Age Group: 2011



Kona Qualifying Races and Slots by Age Group: 2011




Kona Qualifying Times Results Analysis By Ironman Races and by Age Groups






Kona Qualifying Races, Slots and Times: 2010

This table outlines 2010 qualifying times for the last qualifier in each division across 25 of the best Ironman triathlons in the world.


If you want to have a chance to qualify for Kona in one of these races, expect that you'll need to be at least as fast as the time in your division on this table. Probably faster; qualifying times get faster every year. See the complete list of Qualifiers and Finish Times by Race and Age Group for complete details. Also see our Analysis of Kona Slots per Age Group and our Allocation of Kona Slots by Event and Age Group graphs.

How do Kona qualifying times compare with average times by age group across all 25 races?




Preparing to Qualify

For advice and guidance, see our complete Complete Kona Coverage, and our book  Qualifying for Kona.

Average Ironman Triathlon Finish Times, Splits by Race and Age Group

Average Finish Times by Age Group for all major Ironman triathlons:



Click on any link below for detailed splits by race and age group.




For more detail and comparison with other age groups and races, see:

Toughest/Easiest Ironman Bike Course: Comparing 25 Ironman Races




What's the easiest Ironman triathlon bike course? Which is the hardest? From the most recent race data, St. George, UK and Lanzarote are easily toughest, followed by Cozumel, Lake Placid and Wisconsin. Austria, Arizona and Florida are among the fastest courses. 

Note that outside factors, such as weather, wind, or ability of athletes in the field will influence average times. Kona is harder than most, but qualifiers will, naturally, ride faster than most.  We think that the Austria time is probably deceptively fast. Unless the course was short or featured tailwinds, having ridden all four, we'd say it's harder than Arizona and Florida, and equivalent to New Zealand.


Ironman 70.3 St. George 2014 Results Analysis: Overall, by Division, by Split, vs 2013

Ironman 70.3 St. George, once a full-distance 140.6 mile Ironman event, saw 2073 triathletes finish in an average time of 6 hours and 15 minutes. Triathletes in the 2014 edition shaved time off of each discipline, saving more than 5 minutes overall vs 2013's average time of 6:20. Fast facts, followed by detailed charts:

  • Registered Entrants: 2,653 vs 2,699 in 2013
  • DNS:17% vs 19% in 2013
  • DNF: 5.2% vs 3.9%
  • Average Swim: 40 minutes vs 41 in 2013
  • Average Bike: 3:10 vs 3:12
  • Average Run: 2:16 vs 2:17
  • Transition: 0:07 vs 0:08
  • Overall: 6:15 in 2014 vs 6:20 in 2013






Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis

For the latest, see 

Ironman 70.3 St. George 2014 Results Analysis

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Ironman 70.3 St. George, a beautiful but tough long-distance triathlon, took place under almost perfect conditions, resulting in an average finish time of 6:24 (we were close; we had projected 6:30, see below). At 6:24, it's one of the toughest Ironman 70.3 courses we've analyzed, and much slower than the average 6:00 finish time for all events.

The splits times as a percent of total were almost exactly what our models predict: 50% of time on the bike. Also note our correlation between bike and run splits for all finishers; results are significantly more bunched together, and with a higher R^2 than in 2012. Far more remarkable was the difference in DNF rates and finishers:
  • Ironman 140.6 St. George 2012: 29% DNF; 1,022 finishers
  • Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013: 4% DNF; 2,105 finishers
Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis











Pre-Race Ironman 70.3 Results Analysis Projections

In recent years, the full 140.6 mile Ironman St. George event had been one of the toughest courses on the Ironman circuit. For 2013, the race is now an Ironman 70.3 distance, and it's now the US. Pro Championship race.

The change brought up an interesting question: with Ironman St. George now a 70.3 mile event, effectively half the old race, what finish times could be expected?

We projected an overall finish time of 6:30 (see below), and we were within 1% or so: the actual result was 6:24 (see above).

In the past, we've presents results analysis of Ironman St. George 2010, 2011 and 2012, and we've also conducted in-depth analysis of 15 pairings of similar Ironman 140.6 and Ironman 70.3 events to predict average finish time at one distance based on actual results at another. Combining these analytics, here are the results.

Projections for Ironman 70.3 St. George
  • Average finish time will be around 6 hours, 30 minutes
  • Swim: 45 minutes (expected to be 53% of average 2010 to 2013 swim split)
  • Bike: 3:19 (expected to be 48% of average 2010 to 2013 bike split)
  • Run: 2:15  (expected to be 44% of average 2010 to 2013 run split)
  • Transitions: 0:11 (or about 80% of 2010-2012 splits)
Scroll further down the post to see a detailed set of predictions, by age group, by split, and overall. 







Detailed Analysis of Ironman St. George 2010 to 2012








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Unfinished Business in Boston: Projecting Non-Finishers' Finish Times


It's about time. Literally. It's about declaring projected finish times for the thousands of Boston Marathon runners who were not allowed to finish after the terrible tragedy suspended the race.

Three weeks have passed since the tragedy, and yet there is no resolution for those thousands who have every right to declare themselves Boston Finishers, given the circumstances of the day. Time for closure. Time to define your projected finish time. The BAA's resolution isn't ready yet, which is reasonable, given the myriad of other issues they face.

Until then, it's time to step up with projected finish times, and we've taken on the assignment (unofficially). We ran the numbers, slicing and dicing the data every which way (see notes on Methodology, below), and after hours and hours of detailed analysis, I'll get to the punchline.

Projecting Your Boston Marathon 2013 Finish Time

What might your finish time have been?  It may be as simple as this:
  • If you were stopped after 35k, your effective finish time may = 35k time multiplied by 1.23
  • If you had crossed the 40k, your effective finish time could =  40k time multiplied by 1.06
Is this 100% accurate? No. But I'd expect our projected results will be within a minute or two in a wide majority of the cases.

But: One exception will be the runners who went out too fast, too early, and had hit the wall, slowing to a crawl. See our Correlation Between First and Second Half Split Times to gauge if you fit in that group.

Will the BAA's resolution be different? It very well could be. We don't know what direction they will go. But one thing is clear: our analysis here is unofficial; BAA's will be the official resolution. 

Methodology

Background: our perspective on this topic comes from several dimensions. We know the course intimately; 13 consecutive Boston finishes. We've been presenting in-depth coverage of the Boston Marathon for years, see www.RaceBoston.com. We've developed and posted dozens of analytics and diagnostics about Boston; see our Stats/Results/Analysis archive for more than 200 posts analyzing top marathon and triathlon events. We're not new to projecting finish times based on incomplete data; see many examples in our Race Statistics/Results Analysis archives. Most recently, we projected finish times of the new Ironman 70.3 St. George within 1% of actual.]


We noted the multipliers above were 'deceptively simple' because it took a great deal of work to confidently calculate the appropriate value. 

Our approach is illustrated in an example of our analysis of all Illinois finishers in the 50-54 age group. This included 53 men, 19 women. We did extensive analysis of this sampling of runners, tabulating their 5k splits from start to finish, comparing an contrasting splits from sub-3 hour finishers to 4+ hour runners, from Boston re-qualifiers to those who, well, didn't come close to requalifying. 

See data below, from drill-down detail for each finisher, up to average splits as a percent of total, which we used to calculate the 35k and 40k multipliers.

Male Finishers Aged 50-54 from Illinois






Female Finishers Aged 50-54 from Illinois













For more on our extensive Boston Marathon analysis, see our Complete Boston Marathon Coverage. For even more, see our archive of 200+ Race Stats/Results Analysis posts 
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