Half Ironman: Predicting Your Run Split Based on Your Bike Split

What run split can you expect in a half ironman based on your bike split? Of course, it depends on how conservative you were on the bike course. But we've done the analysis of several half ironman races to help you define your optimal bike/run splits.

On each chart, a formula defines the average; for example, at Switzerland, Run Split (y) = .67 * Bike Split (x), but with wide variation (higher r^2 = less variation). From there, examine the distribution of the squares; each represents a triathlete's actual performance. When you race, you'll want to be in either the lower left or upper right quadrants; those represent racers who balanced the run and bike well.