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| Featured by USA Today |
What's the impact of weather conditions on Boston Marathon Finish Times? We've analyzed weather conditions and finish times by age forecast temperatures soar into the 80-degree range on race day, as they did in 2004 and 2012, we would expect:
- Slower Overall Finish Times by 20+ Minutes on Average
- Men Tend to Suffer More -- Extreme Heat Reduces Men's Finish Times More than Women at Most Age Levels
- More Women Won't Finish -- Up to 20% of Entrants Will DNS (Not Start) or DNF (Start but Not Finish)
- Expect the Unexpected: Boston Conditions Could Defy Forecasters
1. Slower Overall Finish Times by 20+ Minutes on Average
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| Featured by Runner's World |
Our analysis comparing average finish times with race day conditions indicates that temperatures averaging above 60 make a clear difference. Temperatures in the 2012 race exceeded 86 degrees; the brutal heat slowed runners by 28 minutes, on average.
2. Men Will Suffer More -- Extreme Heat Reduces Men's Finish Times More than Women at Most Age Levels
3. More Women Won't Finish -- About 18% of Entrants Will DNS (Not Start) or DNF (Start but Not Finish)
4. Expect the Unexpected: Boston Conditions Could Defy Forecasters
However, often forecasts can be somewhat unreliable as the weather changes unexpectedly on race day. In 2007, a major storm with significantly high winds was forecast, but conditions eased hours before the race began, to a merely windy and chilly rainfest.
In 2004, a relatively warm day was forecast, but the temps soared beyond expectations. The heat caused much suffering on the course, as the very slow finish times indicate. Then again, in 2005, similar temperatures were forecast, but race day conditions, while warm, did not come close to 2004 levels.
Regardless of the forecast, what you experience at the starting line in Hopkinton can differ radically from what you'll face once past Heartbreak Hill, heading toward Boston. Variability in conditions has been significant in recent years, from one of the hottest races in decades (2004) to the cool, rainy conditions in 2007. See weather conditions for the last 12 years below.
Wondering how weather affects finish times elsewhere?
The 2010 Chicago Marathon was a hot one, temperatures soaring into the 80s. A total 36,159 runners made it through high temperatures to cross the finish line. While the heat did not rival 2007, and the mid-event cancellation of that race, the 2010 race was marked by a much higher than average finish time -- 4:43:38 -- and roughly 2000 runners dropping out. And this result was consistent with an analysis we had conducted before the event.
Before the Chicago race, we wondered: how do differing temperatures impact average finish times? We plotted the average finish times and average race-day temperatures for the last 11 years to find the answer. And it seemed to be generally good news for runners as long as temperatures stay below 65 degrees. However, when the average temperature soared over 65, average times would drop, we noted.
And that's just what happened in 2010: high 70s average temperature, and a 4:43:38 average finish time.
In earlier years, when the average temperatures are between 40 and 65 degrees, average finish times may vary within a range of between 4:19 to 4:27. Only an 8-minute difference. Not bad. The exception year was 2008, when a 57 degree average temperature was met with a very slow finish time; we'd venture to say this is because runners were being extremely cautious, in the wake of the 2007 meltdown.
What conditions will Boston marathon runners experience on race day? Time will tell, in more ways than one.
[And for everything else, see our Complete Boston Marathon Coverage and our Boston Marathon Stats and Analysis page.]
What conditions will Boston marathon runners experience on race day? Time will tell, in more ways than one.
[And for everything else, see our Complete Boston Marathon Coverage and our Boston Marathon Stats and Analysis page.]
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| As Published in USA Today |
