Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis

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Ironman 70.3 St. George 2014 Results Analysis

Ironman 70.3 St. George, a beautiful but tough long-distance triathlon, took place under almost perfect conditions, resulting in an average finish time of 6:24 (we were close; we had projected 6:30, see below). At 6:24, it's one of the toughest Ironman 70.3 courses we've analyzed, and much slower than the average 6:00 finish time for all events.

The splits times as a percent of total were almost exactly what our models predict: 50% of time on the bike. Also note our correlation between bike and run splits for all finishers; results are significantly more bunched together, and with a higher R^2 than in 2012. Far more remarkable was the difference in DNF rates and finishers:
  • Ironman 140.6 St. George 2012: 29% DNF; 1,022 finishers
  • Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013: 4% DNF; 2,105 finishers
Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis

Pre-Race Ironman 70.3 Results Analysis Projections

In recent years, the full 140.6 mile Ironman St. George event had been one of the toughest courses on the Ironman circuit. For 2013, the race is now an Ironman 70.3 distance, and it's now the US. Pro Championship race.

The change brought up an interesting question: with Ironman St. George now a 70.3 mile event, effectively half the old race, what finish times could be expected?

We projected an overall finish time of 6:30 (see below), and we were within 1% or so: the actual result was 6:24 (see above).

In the past, we've presents results analysis of Ironman St. George 2010, 2011 and 2012, and we've also conducted in-depth analysis of 15 pairings of similar Ironman 140.6 and Ironman 70.3 events to predict average finish time at one distance based on actual results at another. Combining these analytics, here are the results.

Projections for Ironman 70.3 St. George
  • Average finish time will be around 6 hours, 30 minutes
  • Swim: 45 minutes (expected to be 53% of average 2010 to 2013 swim split)
  • Bike: 3:19 (expected to be 48% of average 2010 to 2013 bike split)
  • Run: 2:15  (expected to be 44% of average 2010 to 2013 run split)
  • Transitions: 0:11 (or about 80% of 2010-2012 splits)
Scroll further down the post to see a detailed set of predictions, by age group, by split, and overall. 

Detailed Analysis of Ironman St. George 2010 to 2012