Qualifying for Kona by Roll Down: Harder Every Year

A few years ago, if you finished an Ironman within a few places of the initial Kona qualifiers in your age group, you could hope a declined slot might roll down to you. Those days, those chances are fast becoming a distant memory. (But sometimes miracles do happen: see our What Are the Chances a Slot May Roll Down to You?)

Races accepting record participants year after year, combined with fewer Kona slots per race, have all but dashed many a roll down dream. Let's look at a specific example, Ironman Canada, age group M40-44, from 2003 to 2010. More competitors, fewer slots, faster qualifying times, fewer roll downs.

Participants in the M40-44 division have increased by 35%, while the number of slots has decreased from11 to 12 in 2003 and 2004 to 8 in 2010. Kona qualifying times in M40-44 have decreased from 10:09 to 9:45. In 2003, the last Kona slot rolled down to the 20th age group finisher. In 2010, the last slot only rolled down to 11th place.

Kona Slot Roll-Down: Chances a Slot Will Roll Down to You?

Should you go to the Kona Slot Roll-Down Ceremony? What are the chances a Kona slot might go unaccepted until it passes to you? The answers: yes, go; and the chances are slim, slimmer every year. But as odds get longer, it inevitably happens several times each year: a slot rolls down far beyond expectations, and some lucky triathlete, there on a whim, takes home an impossibly unexpected Kona slot.

Let's take a recent example: if you've finished Ironman Coeur d'Alene 2011 in the M50-54 age group that offers 5 slots, and you've finished in 16th place, should you just assume you've got no chance? Answer: yes, very likely it won't roll to you (and it didn't at IM CdA in 2011), but you never know.

Sometimes amazing things happen at roll-down. Look at M65-69, which offered 1 slot. Stunningly, the slot rolled down to 8th place. Absolutely unexpected; the guy who took the slot had finished in 16:33, nearly 4 hours later than the 1st place M65-69 finisher. In that age group, this sort of thing never happens. Yet, it did. You never know.

Qualifying For Boston: Correlation between Course Speed and Qualified Runners

Have your mind set on qualifying for Kona? Think your chances of qualifying on any 26.2 mile marathon course varies much? Turns out, it does. Not unexpectedly, the events with the fastest overall times yield a higher percentage of Boston Qualifiers.

But what struck us is how clear the pattern is, as shown in the chart, which show the correlation between average marathon speed and percent of Boston Qualifiers for each race. (Also see our analysis of Boston Qualifying Times and our Complete Boston Marathon Coverage.)