Predicting Your Full Ironman Time Based on Half Ironman Finish: New Zealand Edition

If you've completed a half ironman, how long will it take you to complete a full ironman triathlon? We've previously done a comprehensive analysis examining more than a dozen pairs of races to help triathletes estimate their most likely full ironman times. But the analysis has always been at an overall race average level.

Now, we've taken the analysis a step further, developing targets for use predicting full ironman times based on half ironman results, by age group. The last minute decision to convert Ironman New Zealand 2012 from a full distance event to a half ironman, due to weather concerns, give us the perfect basis of analysis. The half ironman route at Ironman New Zealand is literally half the full route; one lap bike and run for the half ironman, 2 laps for the full distance.

With previous years' finish times by age group for comparison, the answer is: your full ironman time at Ironman New Zealand would be approximately 2.12 times your half ironman time.  A 5:45 average half ironman in 2012 * 2.12 = 12:12 average in 2011.

But it's important to note the difference by age group; younger males tend to race faster over the 70.3 distance, likely to take longer on the second half of a full ironman, based on a roughly 2.2 multiplier.

How does the multiplier translate into racing time? We've calculated how long the second half of the full ironman should take at Ironman New Zealand. Results are below.

A final question that many may ask: does this mean that racing a full ironman is more than twice as hard as racing half the distance? Surprisingly, my answer would be a resounding no. Having raced 29 ironman races, I can tell you with a great deal of experience that a full ironman may seem only 20% to 30% harder. 

And even that personal difficulty differential has less to do with fitness and more to do with the extended time you're on the course, dealing with the mental challenge of continuing to move forward late into your race when pain and suffering begin to increase. 

When it comes down to it, most triathletes will tell you: the final miles in any event, from international distance to half ironman to full, if you're racing hard, by the time you reach the finish line, if you've really given it all you've got, it all pretty much can feel the same: complete exhaustion, and the pride of completing a great race, no matter the distance.

Ironman 70.3 New Zealand 2012 Results Analysis

After being postponed one day due to strong storms, and following concern of similar weather on the new race day, organizers converted Ironman New Zealand to a Half Ironman: 1.2 mile swim, 56 mile bike, and 13.1 mile run.

As race day dawned, weather conditions had much improved, albeit a bit cold (as we've experienced on the NZ course twice). But the decision to race the 1/2 Ironman was set, and more than 1400 triathletes entered Lake Taupo by 7am to start the 70.3 mile journey.

What happens when you get a field of triathletes who have prepared all year to compete in a full ironman, and ask them to compete in half the distance instead? Fast times -- a 5:45 overall average, and faster than average compared to RunTri's Toughest Half Ironman Races -- and very few DNFs -- only 1% did not finish.

Here's our analysis, finish and split time comparisons across all age groups, and a bike/run correlation analysis. For more, visit our extensive archive of race statistics and analysis to see how New Zealand's race stacks up against other half ironman races.

World's Best Triathletes: Which Country has the Fastest Competitors?

One of the common questions raised when it comes to our ranking of the top 25 toughest ironman distance races is about a correlation between triathletes' abilities and where they live and train. Are triathletes from one country or region inherently 'better' than others?

Some maintain that European triathletes are better than North American athletes, for example. Faster Europeans may lead to faster average finish times in certain European races, so the argument goes, making those races appear 'easier' than north American races. To be specific, the most often example raised is the comparison between Ironman Germany and German athletes and North American Ironman events and US/Canada triathletes.

So we put it to the test: does one country consistently have faster triathletes?

To find the answer, we analyzed the best athletes from top triathlon countries -- those that qualified for Kona -- competing head to head at the 2010 Ironman Triathlon World Championship in Hawaii.

Results? Somewhat inconclusive; it depends on the age group.  When you compare Kona competitors' average finish times by age group across the 13 countries with the most qualifiers, it's not immediately clear that one country consistently produces faster finishers.

In M25-29, triathletes from Germany and the US delivered nearly identical times, and those times were within 10 minutes or so of finishers from Australia, Austria, UK, New Zealand and Switzerland.

In M30-34, US athletes combined for the slowest time, but most of the other countries have average finisher times within 10 minutes or so of 9:55: Australia, Austria, Canada, France, UK, Germany, Japan, New Zealand and Switzerland. Ten minutes or less separate these countries' triathletes. 

Of the others, Brazil's finishers are fastest in M30-34 with a 9:37 average time. Does this mean Brazil has the fastest triathletes? 

Not if you look at the M35-39 age group, for starters, where the average time of Brazilian finishers is second slowest. In M35-39, finish times from UK, 9:46 on average, are definitively the fastest of the division. Does this mean UK triathletes are fastest?

Not if you look at the M40-44 age group . . . and so it goes. 

Which country has the fastest triathletes? If the answer depends upon which age group you're talking about, there's not a definitive answer. Take a look at other Kona age group average finishing times by country, and you'll see what we mean.