Boston Marathon 2014 Unofficial Final Qualifying Time Prediction: BQ Time Minus 1 Minute, 34 Seconds

9/25/13: BAA has set BQ - 1:38 official cutoff time to enter Boston Marathon 2014. 
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9/24/13: We unofficially predicted the Boston Marathon Qualifying Time Cutoff will be, for each age group -- BAA Qualifying Time - 00:01:34

An example: Male 18 to 34 BQ time = 3:05:00. With our predicted cutoff to BQ - 00:01:34, runners in M18-34 who ran 3:05:00 - 00:01:34 = 3:03:26 or faster would likely be granted entry if our prediction is correct.

Methodology: Our unofficial prediction is based on our analysis of
  • Using Chicago Marathon 2012 as a test case
  • Sample Data: 37,000 Chicago Marathon 2012 finishers
  • Broken down to Finishers by age group
  • Segmented further to Runners who ran a BQ time in each age group
  • Final segmentation to identify 900 Runners who ran a BQ time by less than 5 minutes (those who were allowed to submit entries last week)
  • Each of the 900 runners distributed, second by second, within the BQ - 5 Minute range
  • Understanding from BAA that 5000 BQ spots remain, and a reported 8000 submitted entries competing for those 5000 spots
  • BAA Rules and Regulations declare that runners are admitted entry according to fastest finish time
  • Roughly 5000 spots divided by 8000 entries = 63%
  • Of the 900 with BQ Time, 63% = 563 runners
  • Accumulating finishers second-by-second from BQ - 4:59 on down
  • The number of 563 cumulative runners is reached at a time of BQ - 1:34
Analysis and outcomes are reflected in charts below:



Data Table: Chicago Marathon BQ - 5 Finishers by Age Group and BQ - 5 Time

Ironman Lake Tahoe DNF (Did Not Finish) Rates Analysis: Comparison with Other Ironman Race DNF Rates

As Featured by Triathlete Magazine Online Edition
By Raymond Britt

The inaugural Ironman Lake Tahoe 2013 crushed triathletes beyond their wildest expectations, with a record-breaking high average finish time of 14 hours and 6 minutes, easily making it the toughest of the RunTri's Ranking of the Top 30 Toughest Ironman Races.

The venue featured breathtaking scenery, but at the end of the day, the views were not much consolation to the 20% who did not finish the race. Fast Facts:
  • Registered Entrants: 2700+
  • Did Not Start: 565 (21%)
  • Finishers: 1,719
  • DNF of Race Starters: 20+%; DNF on Bike: 267 (12%); DNF on Run: 182 (8%)
The stunning results at Ironman Lake Tahoe seemed to have the triathlon community buzzing (thousands of visitors from 800 cities visited our site's analysis, see map above, and interactive map at end of article): Did you hear what happened at Lake Tahoe? Did you hear about the weather? Did you hear about the DNFs?

Ultimately the biggest question seemed to be: How Ironman Lake Tahoe DNF Rates Compare With DNFs at Other Ironman Events?

The answers may surprise you.
  1. Yes, Ironman Lake Tahoe Was a Punishing Race, and Some Age Groups Suffered More than Others
  2. Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNF Rate falls far short of the 29% recorded at Ironman St. George in 2012, BUT . . .
  3. There's No Guarantee that Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 Will see 20% DNF, Too; Conditions and DNFs Vary by Year. 
1. Yes, Ironman Lake Tahoe Was a Punishing Race, and Some Age Groups Suffered More than Others

Let's start with our analysis of Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNFs: overall, by age group, and within age groups, DNF rates on the bike or run.





2. Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNF Rate falls far short of the 29% recorded at Ironman St. George in 2012, BUT . . . 

But when Ironman St. George is eliminated from the comparison, Lake Tahoe's DNF rate is highest.  Among other high DNF events, Louisville and Texas don't come close to LT's 20%.



3. There's No Guarantee that Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 Will see 20% DNF, Too; Conditions and DNFs Vary by Year. 

Our Multi-Year Analysis of DNFs Overall (at Ironman Wisconsin) and by Age Groups (at Ironman Lake Placid) clearly illustrate that DNF rates can vary significantly from year to year.




Which leaves a couple of thousand athletes wondering: should I sign up for Ironman Lake Tahoe next year? If you like the area, the course, and are well-prepared, I'd suggest you sign up for this great race. 

Worried that next year may see 20% DNF again? Sure, it might happen. But I'd not be surprised to see a different DNF rate, more likely to be lower than higher, based on our Ironman Wisconsin and Iron Lake Placid analysis.

Still on the fence? Final thought -- whether DNF rate is 10%, 15% or 20% -- if it were easy, they wouldn't call it an Ironman. Don't be scared by DNF rates, I'd tell you. Prepare vigorously with expectations to be among the 80% of Finishers. 

Go Ahead. Sign up for 2014. Crush the course next time.

RB




About the Author

Raymond Britt: Kona Qualifier in 2002
Raymond Britt is a Marketing Executive and eCommerce Strategy Expert at WinSight, author and publisher of RunTriMedia, and a veteran Ironman triathlete and Boston Marathoner.
Selected current major eCommerce Strategy clients include: World Triathlon Corporation (Ironman Triathlon Global Site, Ironman Triathlon eCommerce Site); Brooks Sports, a Berkshire Hathaway Company (Brooks Running Shoes and Apparel eCommerce Site), and Peapod.com, at $500mm Revenue, World’s Leading Online Grocer (www.Peapod.com)
The results of recent strategies and initiatives include $100 million+ global revenue increase strategies, and building Mobile Commerce growth by up to $50 million for retail and eCommerce clients.



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