- Registered Entrants: 2,653 vs 2,699 in 2013
- DNS:17% vs 19% in 2013
- DNF: 5.2% vs 3.9%
- Average Swim: 40 minutes vs 41 in 2013
- Average Bike: 3:10 vs 3:12
- Average Run: 2:16 vs 2:17
- Transition: 0:07 vs 0:08
- Overall: 6:15 in 2014 vs 6:20 in 2013
Ironman 70.3 St. George 2014 Results Analysis: Overall, by Division, by Split, vs 2013
Ironman 70.3 St. George, once a full-distance 140.6 mile Ironman event, saw 2073 triathletes finish in an average time of 6 hours and 15 minutes. Triathletes in the 2014 edition shaved time off of each discipline, saving more than 5 minutes overall vs 2013's average time of 6:20. Fast facts, followed by detailed charts:
Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis
For the latest, see
Ironman 70.3 St. George 2014 Results Analysis
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Ironman 70.3 St. George, a beautiful but tough long-distance triathlon, took place under almost perfect conditions, resulting in an average finish time of 6:24 (we were close; we had projected 6:30, see below). At 6:24, it's one of the toughest Ironman 70.3 courses we've analyzed, and much slower than the average 6:00 finish time for all events.
The splits times as a percent of total were almost exactly what our models predict: 50% of time on the bike. Also note our correlation between bike and run splits for all finishers; results are significantly more bunched together, and with a higher R^2 than in 2012. Far more remarkable was the difference in DNF rates and finishers:
Ironman 70.3 St. George 2014 Results Analysis
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Ironman 70.3 St. George, a beautiful but tough long-distance triathlon, took place under almost perfect conditions, resulting in an average finish time of 6:24 (we were close; we had projected 6:30, see below). At 6:24, it's one of the toughest Ironman 70.3 courses we've analyzed, and much slower than the average 6:00 finish time for all events.
The splits times as a percent of total were almost exactly what our models predict: 50% of time on the bike. Also note our correlation between bike and run splits for all finishers; results are significantly more bunched together, and with a higher R^2 than in 2012. Far more remarkable was the difference in DNF rates and finishers:
- Ironman 140.6 St. George 2012: 29% DNF; 1,022 finishers
- Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013: 4% DNF; 2,105 finishers
Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis
In recent years, the full 140.6 mile Ironman St. George event had been one of the toughest courses on the Ironman circuit. For 2013, the race is now an Ironman 70.3 distance, and it's now the US. Pro Championship race.
Pre-Race Ironman 70.3 Results Analysis Projections
In recent years, the full 140.6 mile Ironman St. George event had been one of the toughest courses on the Ironman circuit. For 2013, the race is now an Ironman 70.3 distance, and it's now the US. Pro Championship race.
The change brought up an interesting question: with Ironman St. George now a 70.3 mile event, effectively half the old race, what finish times could be expected?
We projected an overall finish time of 6:30 (see below), and we were within 1% or so: the actual result was 6:24 (see above).
We projected an overall finish time of 6:30 (see below), and we were within 1% or so: the actual result was 6:24 (see above).
In the past, we've presents results analysis of Ironman St. George 2010, 2011 and 2012, and we've also conducted in-depth analysis of 15 pairings of similar Ironman 140.6 and Ironman 70.3 events to predict average finish time at one distance based on actual results at another. Combining these analytics, here are the results.
Projections for Ironman 70.3 St. George
- Average finish time will be around 6 hours, 30 minutes
- Swim: 45 minutes (expected to be 53% of average 2010 to 2013 swim split)
- Bike: 3:19 (expected to be 48% of average 2010 to 2013 bike split)
- Run: 2:15 (expected to be 44% of average 2010 to 2013 run split)
- Transitions: 0:11 (or about 80% of 2010-2012 splits)
Scroll further down the post to see a detailed set of predictions, by age group, by split, and overall.
Detailed Analysis of Ironman St. George 2010 to 2012
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Meb Keflezighi's Amazing Boston Marathon Victory: Why Did Other Exceptional Runners Lose?
By Raymond Britt
Boston Marathon 2014: One of the Greatest Marathon Victories of All Time?
Meb Keflezighi's Boston Marathon win has been called 'a Run for the Ages' and some have even called it one of the greatest marathon performances of all time. Meb ran the best race of his life, and that's saying a lot. He was steady, ran his planned race without hesitation, delivering the fastest marathon time in an outstanding career that's included winning the 2009 New York City Marathon and earning a gutsy come-from behind Bronze medal at the Olympic Games.
I have tremendous respect for Meb, Ryan Hall, and all the monumentally impressive top 20 elites who came to race Boston this year. This was an emotional marathon, a year after terrorism shattered the race, and Boston 2014 was the year we were going to take the race back. And nothing would be more perfect than for an American to win for the first time since 1968.
Boston's 32,000 runners and up to one million spectators did indeed take the marathon back, and Meb's victory was the type that legends are made of. A storybook ending, absolutely classic, almost an impossible outcome. As a veteran of 13 consecutive Boston Marathons, and now a reporter/photographer covering the race, I'm thrilled with the result. Boston is legendary. For me Boston is personal. It's the greatest marathon in the world.
Boston Marathon 2014: One of the More Stunning Losing Performances of All Time?
However . . . As an endurance racing statistician who's analyzed hundreds of races in detail, and as a journalist who's been present to witness some of the other, great, defining marathon performances in history at Chicago Marathon, New York City Marathon and US Olympic Trials, the numbers or explanations surrounding the American's victory or the Kenyans' and Ethiopians' poor performances just didn't add up.
We dove deep into the numbers of the elite runners, comparing PRs vs Boston finish times, mapping Top 10 Runners at every checkpoint, and specifically analyzing the top 3 finishers, including Chebet, who had charged to close the gap to 8 seconds from Meb before it stunningly all fell apart.
We shared our analysis and questions with Kevin Helliker and Sharon Terlep of the Wall Street Journal, who included it in their article 'Boston Marathon Mysters: Why Didn't Anyone Beat Meb?'
Here are the questions we posed, and our resulting analysis.
Of 17 elites coming into the race with, for the most part, dramatically faster PRs than Meb, why did many of them deliver shockingly poor performances?
Why did 4 of the fastest marathoners in the world, including the defending champion, drop out of the race before finishing? What are the odds?
Boston Marathon 2014: One of the Greatest Marathon Victories of All Time?
 |
| Image by Raymond Britt |
I have tremendous respect for Meb, Ryan Hall, and all the monumentally impressive top 20 elites who came to race Boston this year. This was an emotional marathon, a year after terrorism shattered the race, and Boston 2014 was the year we were going to take the race back. And nothing would be more perfect than for an American to win for the first time since 1968.
Boston's 32,000 runners and up to one million spectators did indeed take the marathon back, and Meb's victory was the type that legends are made of. A storybook ending, absolutely classic, almost an impossible outcome. As a veteran of 13 consecutive Boston Marathons, and now a reporter/photographer covering the race, I'm thrilled with the result. Boston is legendary. For me Boston is personal. It's the greatest marathon in the world.
Boston Marathon 2014: One of the More Stunning Losing Performances of All Time?
  |
| Wall Street Journal 5/2/14 Featuring RunTri.com Analysis |
We dove deep into the numbers of the elite runners, comparing PRs vs Boston finish times, mapping Top 10 Runners at every checkpoint, and specifically analyzing the top 3 finishers, including Chebet, who had charged to close the gap to 8 seconds from Meb before it stunningly all fell apart.
We shared our analysis and questions with Kevin Helliker and Sharon Terlep of the Wall Street Journal, who included it in their article 'Boston Marathon Mysters: Why Didn't Anyone Beat Meb?'
Here are the questions we posed, and our resulting analysis.
Of 17 elites coming into the race with, for the most part, dramatically faster PRs than Meb, why did many of them deliver shockingly poor performances?
Why did 4 of the fastest marathoners in the world, including the defending champion, drop out of the race before finishing? What are the odds?
So close, but too tired? Chebet came back with a tremendous surge, only, in his agent's word, to become too 'tired' to reel Meb in at the end.
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