Boston Marathon 2014 Unofficial Final Qualifying Time Prediction: BQ Time Minus 1 Minute, 34 Seconds

9/25/13: BAA has set BQ - 1:38 official cutoff time to enter Boston Marathon 2014. 
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9/24/13: We unofficially predicted the Boston Marathon Qualifying Time Cutoff will be, for each age group -- BAA Qualifying Time - 00:01:34

An example: Male 18 to 34 BQ time = 3:05:00. With our predicted cutoff to BQ - 00:01:34, runners in M18-34 who ran 3:05:00 - 00:01:34 = 3:03:26 or faster would likely be granted entry if our prediction is correct.

Methodology: Our unofficial prediction is based on our analysis of
  • Using Chicago Marathon 2012 as a test case
  • Sample Data: 37,000 Chicago Marathon 2012 finishers
  • Broken down to Finishers by age group
  • Segmented further to Runners who ran a BQ time in each age group
  • Final segmentation to identify 900 Runners who ran a BQ time by less than 5 minutes (those who were allowed to submit entries last week)
  • Each of the 900 runners distributed, second by second, within the BQ - 5 Minute range
  • Understanding from BAA that 5000 BQ spots remain, and a reported 8000 submitted entries competing for those 5000 spots
  • BAA Rules and Regulations declare that runners are admitted entry according to fastest finish time
  • Roughly 5000 spots divided by 8000 entries = 63%
  • Of the 900 with BQ Time, 63% = 563 runners
  • Accumulating finishers second-by-second from BQ - 4:59 on down
  • The number of 563 cumulative runners is reached at a time of BQ - 1:34
Analysis and outcomes are reflected in charts below:



Data Table: Chicago Marathon BQ - 5 Finishers by Age Group and BQ - 5 Time

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