Ironman South Africa Results Analysis

How tough were conditions at Ironman South Africa this year? Short answer: second slowest average Ironman finish times we've ever seen, 13:43.  Only Ironman St. George has proved tougher in our Top 25 Toughest Ironman Rankings. But this year's Ironman South Africa was a one-time aberration; in 2011, the average finish time was 12:53, more typical of IM SA results.

What made the 2012 race 50 minutes slower? To begin, the swim -- which came close to being canceled -- resulted in an average split of 1:33. It's by far the slowest we've ever seen in an Ironman, a full 10+ minutes higher than the typical average. And things didn't get any easier on the bike course, where triathletes averaged 7 hours to complete the 112 mile bike course. After facing crushing difficulty on the swim and bike courses, competitors finally caught a break, settling into a relatively normal 4:53 marathon.

Those who finished battled through a decidedly tough day that forced about 9% of swimmers to DNF after the swim, and another 4% DNF after the bike. Those who made it across the line did more than just finish an Ironman. They battled through one of the toughest races they'll ever compete in, they never gave up, and proved that overcoming nearly impossible obstacles -- unforgiving conditions -- is truly possible.

Ironman St. George 2011: Correlation Between Bike and Run Splits

With an average marathon of 5:10 and bike split of 6:41, Ironman St. George 2011 is at the top of RunTri's Toughest/Easiest Ironman list.

When it comes to balancing the bike (x, and 50% of total race time) and run (y = 77% of x), our analysis of IM StG 2011 highlights four groups: 1. Fast and Balanced; 2. Energy to Spare for a fast run; 3. Left it on the Bike Course; 4. Smooth and Steady for a slow bike and slow run.

You want to be #1 or #4.  In comparison to similar analyses of other Ironman races, the finishers at Ironman St. George seem to have struck a clear, if conservative balance between bike and run. Translation: it appears fewer blew up on the run after riding too hard on the bike course.

As the R^2 is .45, the correlation is low overall, but in an Ironman, all that really matters is reaching the finish line. For more see Ironman St. George and RunTri's Race Analysis Index.

Ironman St. George Results Analysis and Kona Qualifying Times

With a record-breaking 29% DNF (started but did not finish) rate (compared to 19% in 2011), Ironman St. George remains at the top of RunTri's Toughest Ironman Course list (though Ironman South Africa's conditions and 13:43 time rivaled St. G this year). Of the 1432 starters, only 1024 finished. The frustratingly choppy water forced 6% of starters to DNF; wind gusts up to 40 mph forced another 19% to DNF, and finally, another 4% did not complete the run. Those who did cross the finish line did so in an average of nearly 14 hours. At 13:52:55 average finish time, St. George 2012 was 16 minutes slower than in 2011.

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2011 Race Analysis

Ironman St. George unquestionably remains at the top of RunTri's Toughest Ironman Course list.  How tough is IM StG? Of the more than 1600 who started the 2011 race, 300+ did not finish, about an 18% DNF rate. In the end, 1311 ambitious triathletes finished in a remarkably slow (= difficult) average time of 13 hours, 24 minutes.

Also see our Ironman St. George Bike/Run Correlation Analysis and RunTri's Toughest IMs.