Lance Armstrong Results Analysis at Ironman 70.3 St. Croix

[Note: the bike and run split times were revised by St. Croix's official timers. This post reflects the new numbers.]

By Raymond Britt 

Lance Armstrong, one of the best riders the cycling world has ever seen, has turned to triathlon with aspirations of achieving similar success. In 2012, Lance is competing against the world's best triathletes in 6 major triathlons:

1. Ironman 70.3 Panama (3:50:55, 2nd place, see recap below; full coverage here)
2. Ironman 70.3 Texas (3:54:32, 7th place, see recap below; full coverage here)
3. Ironman 70.3 St. Croix (4:07:08)
4. Ironman 70.3 Hawaii
5. Ironman France
6. Ironman World Championship, Kona Hawaii

After three events -- Ironman 70.3 Panama and Ironman 70.3 Texas and the just-completed Ironman 70.3 St. Croix -- Lance's results are remarkably consistent: a decent swim, followed by taking over the lead on the bike (and breaking the course record at St. Croix), holding onto the lead at the start of the run. The problem is, in each event, he's lost the lead and the chance at victory by faltering on the run.

Lance was known for toughing it out to win brutal stages year after year at Tour de France by outlasting his toughest competition.  As of yet, he's been unable to demonstrate the same unrelenting drive on the half ironman run course; others are making him suffer.

Here's a summary of Lance's finish rank in each part of the race. Rather than look at what place he was in at a particular point in the race, this summary views his performance within swim, bike and run, relative to the Top 10 Overall finishers. The pattern is clear: 6th or 7th fastest swimmer, fastest cyclist, 6th or worse runner. No question about it -- he's not going to win until he learns how to win on the run.

In Panama, he had the 6th fastest swim, the 2nd fastest bike split and the 6th fastest run; all three individual performances resulted in 2nd place overall. In Texas, he was 7th out of the water, then hammered the top bike split, then paid for it by running the worst half marathon of the Top 10, finishing 7th overall. And in St. Croix, it wasn't just how Lance ranked relative to other top 10 pros in the swim, bike or run; it was also the remarkably large gap between his time and the swim and run leaders' times.

Where did Lance really lose Ironman 70.3 St. Croix? On the second loop of the half marathon. He was holding his own through the first 6.2 miles, but it all fell apart after that. His 7 minute 40 second gap between the first and second look was the worst of any in the top 10.

And in each discipline -- swim, bike and run -- Lance turned in his slowest times yet.

 

Ironman South Africa Results Analysis

How tough were conditions at Ironman South Africa this year? Short answer: second slowest average Ironman finish times we've ever seen, 13:43.  Only Ironman St. George has proved tougher in our Top 25 Toughest Ironman Rankings. But this year's Ironman South Africa was a one-time aberration; in 2011, the average finish time was 12:53, more typical of IM SA results.

What made the 2012 race 50 minutes slower? To begin, the swim -- which came close to being canceled -- resulted in an average split of 1:33. It's by far the slowest we've ever seen in an Ironman, a full 10+ minutes higher than the typical average. And things didn't get any easier on the bike course, where triathletes averaged 7 hours to complete the 112 mile bike course. After facing crushing difficulty on the swim and bike courses, competitors finally caught a break, settling into a relatively normal 4:53 marathon.

Those who finished battled through a decidedly tough day that forced about 9% of swimmers to DNF after the swim, and another 4% DNF after the bike. Those who made it across the line did more than just finish an Ironman. They battled through one of the toughest races they'll ever compete in, they never gave up, and proved that overcoming nearly impossible obstacles -- unforgiving conditions -- is truly possible.

Ironman St. George 2011: Correlation Between Bike and Run Splits

With an average marathon of 5:10 and bike split of 6:41, Ironman St. George 2011 is at the top of RunTri's Toughest/Easiest Ironman list.

When it comes to balancing the bike (x, and 50% of total race time) and run (y = 77% of x), our analysis of IM StG 2011 highlights four groups: 1. Fast and Balanced; 2. Energy to Spare for a fast run; 3. Left it on the Bike Course; 4. Smooth and Steady for a slow bike and slow run.

You want to be #1 or #4.  In comparison to similar analyses of other Ironman races, the finishers at Ironman St. George seem to have struck a clear, if conservative balance between bike and run. Translation: it appears fewer blew up on the run after riding too hard on the bike course.

As the R^2 is .45, the correlation is low overall, but in an Ironman, all that really matters is reaching the finish line. For more see Ironman St. George and RunTri's Race Analysis Index.