Lance raced very well: he had the 10th fastest swim, 3rd fastest bike split and 8th fastest run. He had the finish line in sight . . . he was so close . . . could he have won? Could it be Lance lost the race with slow transitions?
Here's our analysis of Lance's race in detail to see where he might have saved precious seconds needed to win. (and for more, see our complete analysis of all Lance Armstrong's races in 2012).
Overall
Swim
Racing as a pro, Armstrong swam the 1.2 mile course in 19 minutes, 22
seconds. This swim split placed him in 10th place among the pros (on
this and other Top 10 Charts, we're presenting splits for the Top 10
Finishers; pros with faster swims either dropped out or finished below
Top 10). He sped through the transition area in 2 minutes, 9 seconds.
Bike
On the 56 mile bike course, Lance rode forcefully toward the front with
Chris Lieto, but continued to trail Bertrand Billard by as much as 90
seconds a few miles from the finish. As the ride wore on, Lieto and
Armstrong pressed the pace, caught Bertrand and had taken the lead.
Throughout much of the bike course, Armstrong has been content to let
Lieto set the pace, often trailing Lieto by a few meters. When the pair
took the lead, Armstrong still trailed Lieto intentionally, hanging back
by 10 meters or so.
Our view: It did not appear that Armstrong was being forced, or even
interested, to ride his Tour de France best in Panama. He seemed to be
saving his energy for the 13.1 mile run course.
His final bike split was 2:10:18, 41.5k/hour, about 26mph. That's training ride speed for him; probably a slow training ride.
Splits After 1.2 Mile Swim, Transition 1 and 56 Mile Bike:
1. Chris Lieto 2:31:44
2. Lance Armstrong 2:31:49
3. Bertrand Billard 2:31:53
4. Oscar Galindez Santos 2:33:12
Could Lance's bike split have been faster to give him a greater lead
when starting the run? Absolutely. But he probably held back in order to
deliver a solid half marathon.
Our correlation between bike and run splits for all finishers at Ironman
70.3 Panama indicate that Lance struck an almost perfect balance
between his bike and run performance. Of those with the top 3 bike
splits, Lance had the fastest run.
Run
Comparing Lance's 13.1 mile run
performance against other Top 10 finishers on a pace per kilometer basis
shows that Lance actually ran faster, the further he got into the
run. He ran the first 3.8k relatively slow at 3:16/k, but then seemed to
speed up and hold his own in the next 11k and 6.3k segments.
Of course, Docherty's splits in each segment were definitively faster
than any other pro. That speed was essential to catching and passing
Lance at the end of the race. Even if Lance ran the first 3.8k a bit
slower to conserve energy, there's no doubt that by the end of the run,
he had given it all he had in an effort to prevent Docherty's victory.
Transitions
Which leaves the question of transitions. Did Lance lose the race in T2?
That 4 minute 14 second transition time: 2:09 for T1 and 2:06 for T2.
Seems pretty fast. But winner Bevan Docherty beat Lance in transitions
by 22 seconds, with a 3:52 total. Notably, Docherty's T2 was 1:46, 20
seconds faster than Lance's T2.
Lance finished 9th out of the top 10 in the transition race, in some
cases by a wide margin. Richie Cunningham proved a 3:30 combined
transition time was possible; Ivan Vasilyev clocked a 3:37, and Bert
Jammaer raced through T1 and T2 in 3:51.
Wait a minute, you may say: Docherty beat Lance by 42 seconds. You could
argue that even if Armstrong matched Docherty's transition time, he
still would have lost by 20 seconds.
But triathletes competing at top levels know the difference seconds can make. Docherty ran an astounding 1:12:50 half marathon. Catching Lance in the last mile from behind was a phenomenal performance. But the key is: catching Lance from behind. And within sight of the finish line.
What if, with with the finish line so near, Docherty was at an additional 22 second disadvantage. Lance that much further ahead; that much closer to the sound of cheering spectators ready to greet the race winner.
Would Docherty have been able to close the additional gap? Would Lance have been able to fight a bit longer with that extra advantage?
We'll never know. But one thing's for sure. Every second counts. Triathletes who compete with the best fight for every moment that puts them closer to victory. And for Lance, moments lost in transition 2 may have made the difference between winning and losing. (And he was reportedly not an altogether gentlemanly second place finisher, brushing past Docherty without congratulating the winner, or even offering a handshake.)
More than 800 athletes registered for Ironman 70.3 Panama, but 24% did not start the race. Of those who started, 7% did not finish, indicating the race was a bit more difficult than average. Of the 551 who finished the Panama Half Ironman 70.3 triathlon, here's how these competitors fared by age group.
Also see:
