Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis

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Ironman 70.3 St. George 2014 Results Analysis

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Ironman 70.3 St. George, a beautiful but tough long-distance triathlon, took place under almost perfect conditions, resulting in an average finish time of 6:24 (we were close; we had projected 6:30, see below). At 6:24, it's one of the toughest Ironman 70.3 courses we've analyzed, and much slower than the average 6:00 finish time for all events.

The splits times as a percent of total were almost exactly what our models predict: 50% of time on the bike. Also note our correlation between bike and run splits for all finishers; results are significantly more bunched together, and with a higher R^2 than in 2012. Far more remarkable was the difference in DNF rates and finishers:

• Ironman 140.6 St. George 2012: 29% DNF; 1,022 finishers
• Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013: 4% DNF; 2,105 finishers

Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis

Pre-Race Ironman 70.3 Results Analysis Projections

In recent years, the full 140.6 mile Ironman St. George event had been one of the toughest courses on the Ironman circuit. For 2013, the race is now an Ironman 70.3 distance, and it's now the US. Pro Championship race.

The change brought up an interesting question: with Ironman St. George now a 70.3 mile event, effectively half the old race, what finish times could be expected?

We projected an overall finish time of 6:30 (see below), and we were within 1% or so: the actual result was 6:24 (see above).

In the past, we've presents results analysis of Ironman St. George 2010, 2011 and 2012, and we've also conducted in-depth analysis of 15 pairings of similar Ironman 140.6 and Ironman 70.3 events to predict average finish time at one distance based on actual results at another. Combining these analytics, here are the results.

Projections for Ironman 70.3 St. George

• Average finish time will be around 6 hours, 30 minutes
• Swim: 45 minutes (expected to be 53% of average 2010 to 2013 swim split)
• Bike: 3:19 (expected to be 48% of average 2010 to 2013 bike split)
• Run: 2:15  (expected to be 44% of average 2010 to 2013 run split)
• Transitions: 0:11 (or about 80% of 2010-2012 splits)

Scroll further down the post to see a detailed set of predictions, by age group, by split, and overall. 

Detailed Analysis of Ironman St. George 2010 to 2012

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Meb Keflezighi's Amazing Boston Marathon Victory: Why Did Other Exceptional Runners Lose?

By Raymond Britt

Boston Marathon 2014: One of the Greatest Marathon Victories of All Time?

Image by Raymond Britt

Meb Keflezighi's Boston Marathon win has been called 'a Run for the Ages' and some have even called it one of the greatest marathon performances of all time. Meb ran the best race of his life, and that's saying a lot. He was steady, ran his planned race without hesitation, delivering the fastest marathon time in an outstanding career that's included winning the 2009 New York City Marathon and earning a gutsy come-from behind Bronze medal at the Olympic Games.

I have tremendous respect for Meb, Ryan Hall, and all the monumentally impressive top 20 elites who came to race Boston this year. This was an emotional marathon, a year after terrorism shattered the race, and Boston 2014 was the year we were going to take the race back. And nothing would be more perfect than for an American to win for the first time since 1968.

Boston's 32,000 runners and up to one million spectators did indeed take the marathon back, and Meb's victory was the type that legends are made of. A storybook ending, absolutely classic, almost an impossible outcome. As a veteran of 13 consecutive Boston Marathons, and now a reporter/photographer covering the race, I'm thrilled with the result. Boston is legendary. For me Boston is personal. It's the greatest marathon in the world.

Boston Marathon 2014: One of the More Stunning Losing Performances of All Time?

Wall Street Journal 5/2/14 Featuring RunTri.com Analysis

However . . . As an endurance racing statistician who's analyzed hundreds of races in detail, and as a journalist who's been present to witness some of the other, great, defining marathon performances in history at Chicago Marathon, New York City Marathon and US Olympic Trials, the numbers or explanations surrounding the American's victory or the Kenyans' and Ethiopians' poor performances just didn't add up.

We dove deep into the numbers of the elite runners, comparing PRs vs Boston finish times, mapping Top 10 Runners at every checkpoint, and specifically analyzing the top 3 finishers, including Chebet, who had charged to close the gap to 8 seconds from Meb before it stunningly all fell apart.

We shared our analysis and questions with Kevin Helliker and Sharon Terlep of the Wall Street Journal, who included it in their article 'Boston Marathon Mysters: Why Didn't Anyone Beat Meb?'

Here are the questions we posed, and our resulting analysis.

Of 17 elites coming into the race with, for the most part, dramatically faster PRs than Meb, why did many of them deliver shockingly poor performances?

Why did 4 of the fastest marathoners in the world, including the defending champion, drop out of the race before finishing? What are the odds?

So close, but too tired? Chebet came back with a tremendous surge, only, in his agent's word, to become too 'tired' to reel Meb in at the end. 

Boston Marathon 2014: Geomapped Results From 7,000+ Global Cities

Geo-Mapping of Finishers and Average Finish Times from each of 7,077 Cities with Boston Marathon 2014 Finishers

Nearly 36,000 runners were granted entry into the 118th running of the Boston Marathon in April 2014. Of those entrants, more than 32,000 started the race, and 31,805 finished it in an average time of 4 hours and 2 minutes.

We think it's pretty impressive that Boston 2014 had finishers from 7,077 cities, we've plotted, on geomaps below, each city's number of finishers and average finish time overall.

Each red dot represents a city; click on it and you'll see its overall results. How did your city's time compare? Click nearby, how did your neighboring cities perform? Navigate the around the Google maps -- zoom in and out, scroll around, explore. The results may surprise you.

Global Map of 7000 Cities' With Finishers at Boston Marathon 2014

North America Cities with Boston Marathon 2014 Finishers

European Cities with Boston Marathon 2014 Finishers

Africa and Asia-Pacific Cities with Boston Marathon 2014 Finishers

Central and South American Cities with Boston Marathon 2014 Finishers




Pre-Race Geo-Mapping of 7000+ Cities with Boston Marathon 2014 Entrants (3/31/14)

Simply Amazing. 

Runners from 7,000 global cities will comprise the field of 35,473 Runners at the 2014 Marathon.

Repeat: runners from 7,000 global cities. Absolutely unprecedented. But with extraordinary purpose: to reclaim Boston from terror.

What a breathtakingly powerful statement that makes about the running community's support of Boston.

We've always been proud to be a long-time part of the Boston Marathon family, both as a 13-consecutive-time finisher and major media outlet contributor. We're prouder than ever to be a part of this year's historic event with the 35.473.

Where Are They All Coming From?

Wonder where those 35,473 runners are coming from? Wonder where those 7,000+ cities are?

We've got your answers. We created a comprehensive global map, plotting each location sending runners to Boston. But there's more: click on any red dot representing a city, and all relative pre-race information will appear: number of runners, males, females, and average ages. Go ahead, find your city, compare it to others.

The data is plotted on google maps, so you can zoom in and out as normal, plus you can click and drag maps for best viewing.
A world with 7,000 cities sending runners to Boston is a bit too big to present in one map. So we've broken the world into continents and regions.

Explore the maps and the data. Enjoy the journey. And we'll see you, representing Wilmette, IL, USA, on race day.

North America

Europe

Asia-Pacific

Mid-East/Africa

South America