Boston Marathon: Predicting Your Finishing Time After Running the First 13.1 Miles

Around the time Boston Marathon runners reach the half-way point in Wellesley, the question on most runners' minds is: What might my finish time likely to be?

How can runners predict a finish time halfway through the race?

The short answer, after analyzing thousands of finishers splits over the years: multiple your 13.1 mile time by 2.1. Cross the half-way point in 1:30, you could finish in 3:09, for example.

But first, note that statistically, the 2.1 multiplier is a decent guide. But it won't hold for those who started too fast, or finished with extra energy left over.

The blue dots in this chart plot the intersection of first and second half splits for each Boston Marathon 2013 finisher. The cluster around the yellow trend line hold reasonably true to the finish multiplier of 2.1 times half-marathon split. But you can also see a great many runners who blew up in the second half of the race, shown in the general upper left area



Of course there are variances, and I've got answers for you, by age gender, age group and by 30 minute finish time increments for all who finished under 4:30 in 2013. See age group details below.











[Competitor Magazine (www.competitor.com) has published our analysis of more than 17,000 finishers at Boston Marathon 2013 to provide some guidance. Click this link for the full article. Below are some of the charts contained in the piece.]

For more, see our complete Boston Marathon Race Coverage.


















Boston Marathon Photos: Racing to The Marathon Runner's Ultimate Finish Line

The final approach toward the Boston Marathon Finish line on Boylston Street is where great runners experience what may be the most important running highlight of their lives. The Legendary Finish Line just ahead, nearly 26.2 miles finished, these final yards of running on the greatest marathon on the world are strides of ultimate celebration.

And then you're crossing the line. You've done it. You're among the running world's best, proud runners who've finished Boston. Welcome to the hallowed ground of the Finish Line. Welcome to the club of Boston Finishers.

This is what the experience looks like, in images taken by 13-consecutive-time Boston finisher, Raymond Britt.






























For everything else you want to know about racing the Boston Marathon, visit our comprehensive Boston Marathon Qualifying Advice,  Race Strategy Results Analysis, Images, and more page.

Ironman Melbourne 2014 Results Analysis: Average Finish Times, Splits, Comparisons by Age Group and Year

Ironman Melbourne 2014 maintained its reputation as one of the top events in two highly desired categories:

Our results analysis indicate that 2014 performances were about average for Ironman Melbourne. Overall finish time was about the same as in 2012; and when you factor out the fact that conditions shortened the swim by half, splits were fairly consistent with 2013 as well. 


We've run the numbers to examine Ironman Melbourne 2014 from every angle: Overall, by average finish time, by split, by year, by age group, by finishers and DNFs, plus a correlation between bike and run splits. Our analysis is presented below.

For a more comprehensive view of Ironman Melbourne 2014, see our other related articles, 
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