Lance Armstrong Ironman 70.3 Texas Results Analysis

Lance Armstrong Takes 7th place at Ironman 70.3 Texas: Did He Leave It All on the Bike Course?


Interesting question, especially of a 7-time Tour de France Winner: Should Lance not have ridden so fast at Ironman 70.3 Texas?

Could it be that Lance made the classic triathlon rookie mistake at Ironman Texas 70.3: rode too hard on the 56 Mile bike course, and suffered as a result on the 13.1 mile run?

It's quite possible, considering the splits from his 7th place race in Texas compared to those in his 2nd place finish in Panama: 5 minutes faster on the bike, 5 minutes slower -- suffering to the point of walking near the end -- on the run.


Lance Armstrong at 2012 Ironman 70.3 Texas 


Lance Armstrong started Ironman 70.3 Texas with a decent swim (15th place), took it easy on the first 28 miles of the bike course (25mph) before unloading a 28mph second lap to take the lead heading into the run course. The lead was short-lived, and from there, things only got worse: suffering to the point of walking the late stages of the run, he settled for a disappointing 7th place overall.

Bike
    Lance took the lead early on the bike, with a first lap (28 miles) speed of 25.12 mph. At 1:06:52, Lance seemed to be taking it easy. Lance hammered lap 2: 28.82 mph, 58 minutes, a full 8 minutes faster than lap 1.

    However, Lance was not without competition on the bike course. Stephane Poulet and Sebastian Kienle rode lap 2 at 29.12 mph, 10+ minutes faster than lap 1, and finished within 16 seconds of Lance. And Sebastian Kienle turned in a faster overall bike split than Lance: 2:03:43, 27.16 mph.


    Run

    Lance began the 13.1 mile run with an 11 second lead over Stephane Poulat, but after only 3 minutes on the run, Poulat had passed Lance. After 11 minutes on the run, Sebastian Kiene had also passed Lance, completely erasing his 1:30 deficit leaving T1; Poulat remained in the lead. At the 4.6 mile timing mat Lance caught Poulet, but still trailed Kienle by 38 seconds.

    After 30 minutes on the run, Timothy O'Donnell had passed Lance, and was gaining ground on race leader Kienle. At the 7.2 mile timing mat, Lance's running pace has slowed dramatically.

    By mile 9, on-site race observers suggested that Lance couldn't catch Kienle or O'Donnell but might hold onto 3rd place. Just then,  Michael Raelert, who was seen walking earlier, has leapt back into the race, passing Armstrong.

    The race for victory was exciting; approaching the 1-mile to go mark, Keinle and O'Donnell were trying to outpace the other, surging and countering to remain together. At the last turnaround, O'Donnell broke free from Kienle, and took the win by 10 seconds.

    At the same time, Lance Armstrong was reportedly walking; course observers noted he must start running if he wanted to hold onto 5th place. Finishing the last 1.5 miles at an 8:33/mile pace, Lance had all but given up, ceding not only 5th place, but getting beaten at the line by Jordon Jones, who took 6th place. 






    So, back to the original question: should Lance not have ridden so fast at Ironman 70.3 Texas?

    How do you tell the fastest rider in the world to slow down? Somebody may have to, if he wants to win at triathlon.


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    Predicting Full Ironman Time Based on Half Ironman Results by Age Group

    We've previously done a thorough analysis comparing 70.3 and full ironman events around the world to define a simple formula with which to predict your ironman finish time:

    Ironman finish time = your half-marathon result * a multiplier of 2.1

    Here, we take the analysis a step further: defining the average multiplier for each age group. We analyzed the relative range of tough (Texas, with a 2.17 overall multiplier) and average (New Zealand, average multiplier of 2.12) ironman and half ironman 70.3 combinations.

    Interestingly, the multipliers do vary across many age groups. Most fluctuate slightly above the 2.1 multiplier, with Texas exceeding New Zealand in most age groups. Notable exceptions are men aged 18 to 39, which see a higher multiplier at New Zealand, while women 18 to 54 have it tougher in Texas.

    Overall



    New Zealand




    Texas

     



    Lance Armstrong Ironman 70.3 Panama Results Analysis

    Lance Armstrong finished second in his debut half Ironman race, coming within 42 seconds of victory.  For most of the 13.1 mile run course, it looked like Lance would win, but Olympic triathlon medal winner Bevan Docherty caught Armstrong in the last mile, in dramatic fashion, to take the win. 

    Lance raced very well: he had the 10th fastest swim, 3rd fastest bike split and 8th fastest run.  He had the finish line in sight . . . he was so close . . . could he have won? Could it be Lance lost the race with slow transitions?

    Here's our analysis of Lance's race in detail to see where he might have saved precious seconds needed to win. (and for more, see our complete analysis of all Lance Armstrong's races in 2012).

    Overall




    Swim
    Racing as a pro, Armstrong swam the 1.2 mile course in 19 minutes, 22 seconds. This swim split placed him in 10th place among the pros (on this and other Top 10 Charts, we're presenting splits for the Top 10 Finishers; pros with faster swims either dropped out or finished below Top 10). He sped through the transition area in 2 minutes, 9 seconds.

    Bike
    On the 56 mile bike course, Lance rode forcefully toward the front with Chris Lieto, but continued to trail Bertrand Billard by as much as 90 seconds a few miles from the finish. As the ride wore on, Lieto and Armstrong pressed the pace, caught Bertrand and had taken the lead.
    Throughout much of the bike course, Armstrong has been content to let Lieto set the pace, often trailing Lieto by a few meters. When the pair took the lead, Armstrong still trailed Lieto intentionally, hanging back by 10 meters or so.
    Our view: It did not appear that Armstrong was being forced, or even interested, to ride his Tour de France best in Panama. He seemed to be saving his energy for the 13.1 mile run course.
    His final bike split was 2:10:18, 41.5k/hour, about 26mph. That's training ride speed for him; probably a slow training ride.

    Splits After 1.2 Mile Swim, Transition 1 and 56 Mile Bike:
    1. Chris Lieto 2:31:44
    2. Lance Armstrong 2:31:49
    3. Bertrand Billard 2:31:53
    4. Oscar Galindez Santos 2:33:12
    Could Lance's bike split have been faster to give him a greater lead when starting the run? Absolutely. But he probably held back in order to deliver a solid half marathon. 
    Our correlation between bike and run splits for all finishers at Ironman 70.3 Panama indicate that Lance struck an almost perfect balance between his bike and run performance. Of those with the top 3 bike splits, Lance had the fastest run.

    Run
    Comparing Lance's 13.1 mile run performance against other Top 10 finishers on a pace per kilometer basis shows that Lance actually ran faster, the further he got into the run. He ran the first 3.8k relatively slow at 3:16/k, but then seemed to speed up and hold his own in the next 11k and 6.3k segments.

    Of course, Docherty's splits in each segment were definitively faster than any other pro. That speed was essential to catching and passing Lance at the end of the race. Even if Lance ran the first 3.8k a bit slower to conserve energy, there's no doubt that by the end of the run, he had given it all he had in an effort to prevent Docherty's victory.
    Transitions
    Which leaves the question of transitions. Did Lance lose the race in T2?
    That 4 minute 14 second transition time: 2:09 for T1 and 2:06 for T2. Seems pretty fast. But winner Bevan Docherty beat Lance in transitions by 22 seconds, with a 3:52 total. Notably, Docherty's T2 was 1:46, 20 seconds faster than Lance's T2. 
    Lance finished 9th out of the top 10 in the transition race, in some cases by a wide margin. Richie Cunningham proved a 3:30 combined transition time was possible; Ivan Vasilyev clocked a 3:37, and Bert Jammaer raced through T1 and T2 in 3:51.
    Wait a minute, you may say: Docherty beat Lance by 42 seconds. You could argue that even if Armstrong matched Docherty's transition time, he still would have lost by 20 seconds.

    But triathletes competing at top levels know the difference seconds can make. Docherty ran an astounding 1:12:50 half marathon. Catching Lance in the last mile from behind was a phenomenal performance. But the key is: catching Lance from behind. And within sight of the finish line.

    What if, with with the finish line so near, Docherty was at an additional 22 second disadvantage. Lance that much further ahead; that much closer to the sound of cheering spectators ready to greet the race winner.

    Would Docherty have been able to close the additional gap? Would Lance have been able to fight a bit longer with that extra advantage?


    We'll never know. But one thing's for sure. Every second counts. Triathletes who compete with the best fight for every moment that puts them closer to victory. And for Lance, moments lost in transition 2 may have made the difference between winning and losing. (And he was reportedly not an altogether gentlemanly second place finisher, brushing past Docherty without congratulating the winner, or even offering a handshake.)

    Overall Results Analysis

    More than 800 athletes registered for Ironman 70.3 Panama, but 24% did not start the race. Of those who started, 7% did not finish, indicating the race was a bit more difficult than average. Of the 551 who finished the Panama Half Ironman 70.3 triathlon, here's how these competitors fared by age group.

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