Qualifying for Boston Marathon 2014: Chicago Marathon 2012 Qualifier Analysis

Chicago Marathon 2012: Overall, BQ, Non-BQ, Made or Missed Cutoff, by Age Group

There were 37.475 finishers at Chicago Marathon 2012; 3378, or 9% that finished with a Boston Qualifying time. Of the 3,378, 2,477 Qualified for Boston with a time 5 minutes or more faster than required; 901 Qualified with a time 5 minutes or less than the BQ standard. Of those 901, 553, or 61%, made the 1:38 cutoff, 343, or 39%, did not. Pulling it all together, 10% of Chicago Marathon 2012 finishers who ran a BQ time, missed the 1:38 cutoff time.

Here's the breakdown, overall, by number of those who made or missed the cutoff, and the mix of those who didn't make the cutoff by age group.

For more, see our analysis: 

• Boston Marathon 2014 Registration Analysis and Timeline. 
• Boston Marathon 2014 Qualifying Cutoff Time Prediction Methodology 
• Qualifying for Boston Marathon 2014: Interest at an all-time high

Note: We assume that not all runners who finished with a BQ time applied for Boston Marathon 2014 entry, but we also assume that the percentage of each age group's finishers that did submit entries was roughly the same across the board.

Boston Marathon 2014 Registration: Interest at an All-Time High

In the days after terrorists' bombs ended Boston Marathon 2013, a tremendous surge of interest in participating in Boston Marathon 2014.

Our analysis shows 'Qualify for Boston Marathon' is one of the hottest searches on google, and compared to search trends at the same time of year since 2008, the interest is nothing short of extraordinary.

Here's our hypothesis about why we're seeing this skyrocketing demand to know about how to qualify to race Boston in 2014. It doesn't appear to be the usual 'I hope I can qualify' interest, which is steady year to year. The exceptional volume of search and visitor traffic certainly prove more than ever, runners want to be in Boston

But more importantly, the leap in interest seems to suggest more of a fighting spirit. Runners are thinking: dammit, I'm going to run Boston to prove we aren't afraid of evil, we're going to face it head on, to show once and for all that no one's going to mess with us again. Runners see it as a sort of patriotic duty, to unite in a tribute to honor those who suffered in the tragedy and to take back the legendary event.

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For more, see

Boston Marathon 2013 2013 Results Analysis Unofficial Individual Results Projecting Finish Times for Non-Finishers 12-Year Race Weather Analysis Statistics, Data, Analysis Course Map Course Video Correlation Between 1st, 2nd Half Splits Qualifying for Boston Qualifying for Boston 2014 Skyrocketing Interest In Qualifying for 2014 100+ Countries, 3,500+ Cities; Interactive Map Qualifying for Boston at the Boston Marathon Qualifying for Boston 2014 at Boston 2013 Impact of New Qualifying Times Top 50 Races to Qualify Charity Entry Boston Marathon: Portraits of Inspiration Racing Boston Race Pace Tips  Race Pace Details Live In-Race Course Photos Bib Numbers The Legendary Course Guide

Essentials Date: Monday April 21, 2014 / Distance: 26.2 Miles Start: Hopkinton / Finish: Boston Buses to Hopkinton from 6am to 7:30am Start: 10am Wave1, 10:20 Wave2, 10:40 W3 Official Site Boston Marathon 2012 Results Analysis Boston Marathon 2012 Recap Average Finish Times Avg. Times by Age Group Detail Entrants, DNS, DNF Rates Results by 5,800 Cities Impact of Weather on Results Impact of New Qualifying Times Boston Marathon 2011 Results Analysis Average Finishing Times 2000 to 2011 Average Finish Times by City Entrants, DNS and DNF rates, Finishers Finish Times vs New York and Chicago Boston Marathon Stats and Analysis

For more, see our Qualifying for Boston post or our Complete Boston Marathon Coverage.

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Boston Marathon 2014 Unofficial Final Qualifying Time Prediction: BQ Time Minus 1 Minute, 34 Seconds

9/25/13: BAA has set BQ - 1:38 official cutoff time to enter Boston Marathon 2014. 

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9/24/13: We unofficially predicted the Boston Marathon Qualifying Time Cutoff will be, for each age group -- BAA Qualifying Time - 00:01:34

An example: Male 18 to 34 BQ time = 3:05:00. With our predicted cutoff to BQ - 00:01:34, runners in M18-34 who ran 3:05:00 - 00:01:34 = 3:03:26 or faster would likely be granted entry if our prediction is correct.

Methodology: Our unofficial prediction is based on our analysis of

• Using Chicago Marathon 2012 as a test case
• Sample Data: 37,000 Chicago Marathon 2012 finishers
• Broken down to Finishers by age group
• Segmented further to Runners who ran a BQ time in each age group
• Final segmentation to identify 900 Runners who ran a BQ time by less than 5 minutes (those who were allowed to submit entries last week)
• Each of the 900 runners distributed, second by second, within the BQ - 5 Minute range
• Understanding from BAA that 5000 BQ spots remain, and a reported 8000 submitted entries competing for those 5000 spots
• BAA Rules and Regulations declare that runners are admitted entry according to fastest finish time
• Roughly 5000 spots divided by 8000 entries = 63%
• Of the 900 with BQ Time, 63% = 563 runners
• Accumulating finishers second-by-second from BQ - 4:59 on down
• The number of 563 cumulative runners is reached at a time of BQ - 1:34

Analysis and outcomes are reflected in charts below:

Data Table: Chicago Marathon BQ - 5 Finishers by Age Group and BQ - 5 Time