Qualifying for Boston Marathon 2014: Chicago Marathon 2012 Qualifier Analysis

Chicago Marathon 2012: Overall, BQ, Non-BQ, Made or Missed Cutoff, by Age Group

There were 37.475 finishers at Chicago Marathon 2012; 3378, or 9% that finished with a Boston Qualifying time. Of the 3,378, 2,477 Qualified for Boston with a time 5 minutes or more faster than required; 901 Qualified with a time 5 minutes or less than the BQ standard. Of those 901, 553, or 61%, made the 1:38 cutoff, 343, or 39%, did not. Pulling it all together, 10% of Chicago Marathon 2012 finishers who ran a BQ time, missed the 1:38 cutoff time.

Here's the breakdown, overall, by number of those who made or missed the cutoff, and the mix of those who didn't make the cutoff by age group.

For more, see our analysis: 

• Boston Marathon 2014 Registration Analysis and Timeline. 
• Boston Marathon 2014 Qualifying Cutoff Time Prediction Methodology 
• Qualifying for Boston Marathon 2014: Interest at an all-time high

Note: We assume that not all runners who finished with a BQ time applied for Boston Marathon 2014 entry, but we also assume that the percentage of each age group's finishers that did submit entries was roughly the same across the board.

Boston Marathon 2014 Registration: Interest at an All-Time High

In the days after terrorists' bombs ended Boston Marathon 2013, a tremendous surge of interest in participating in Boston Marathon 2014.

Our analysis shows 'Qualify for Boston Marathon' is one of the hottest searches on google, and compared to search trends at the same time of year since 2008, the interest is nothing short of extraordinary.

Here's our hypothesis about why we're seeing this skyrocketing demand to know about how to qualify to race Boston in 2014. It doesn't appear to be the usual 'I hope I can qualify' interest, which is steady year to year. The exceptional volume of search and visitor traffic certainly prove more than ever, runners want to be in Boston

But more importantly, the leap in interest seems to suggest more of a fighting spirit. Runners are thinking: dammit, I'm going to run Boston to prove we aren't afraid of evil, we're going to face it head on, to show once and for all that no one's going to mess with us again. Runners see it as a sort of patriotic duty, to unite in a tribute to honor those who suffered in the tragedy and to take back the legendary event.

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For more, see

Boston Marathon 2013 2013 Results Analysis Unofficial Individual Results Projecting Finish Times for Non-Finishers 12-Year Race Weather Analysis Statistics, Data, Analysis Course Map Course Video Correlation Between 1st, 2nd Half Splits Qualifying for Boston Qualifying for Boston 2014 Skyrocketing Interest In Qualifying for 2014 100+ Countries, 3,500+ Cities; Interactive Map Qualifying for Boston at the Boston Marathon Qualifying for Boston 2014 at Boston 2013 Impact of New Qualifying Times Top 50 Races to Qualify Charity Entry Boston Marathon: Portraits of Inspiration Racing Boston Race Pace Tips  Race Pace Details Live In-Race Course Photos Bib Numbers The Legendary Course Guide

Essentials Date: Monday April 21, 2014 / Distance: 26.2 Miles Start: Hopkinton / Finish: Boston Buses to Hopkinton from 6am to 7:30am Start: 10am Wave1, 10:20 Wave2, 10:40 W3 Official Site Boston Marathon 2012 Results Analysis Boston Marathon 2012 Recap Average Finish Times Avg. Times by Age Group Detail Entrants, DNS, DNF Rates Results by 5,800 Cities Impact of Weather on Results Impact of New Qualifying Times Boston Marathon 2011 Results Analysis Average Finishing Times 2000 to 2011 Average Finish Times by City Entrants, DNS and DNF rates, Finishers Finish Times vs New York and Chicago Boston Marathon Stats and Analysis

For more, see our Qualifying for Boston post or our Complete Boston Marathon Coverage.

Featured by Competitor

Featured by Runner's World

Featured by ESPN

Boston Marathon 2014 Unofficial Final Qualifying Time Prediction: BQ Time Minus 1 Minute, 34 Seconds

9/25/13: BAA has set BQ - 1:38 official cutoff time to enter Boston Marathon 2014. 

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9/24/13: We unofficially predicted the Boston Marathon Qualifying Time Cutoff will be, for each age group -- BAA Qualifying Time - 00:01:34

An example: Male 18 to 34 BQ time = 3:05:00. With our predicted cutoff to BQ - 00:01:34, runners in M18-34 who ran 3:05:00 - 00:01:34 = 3:03:26 or faster would likely be granted entry if our prediction is correct.

Methodology: Our unofficial prediction is based on our analysis of

• Using Chicago Marathon 2012 as a test case
• Sample Data: 37,000 Chicago Marathon 2012 finishers
• Broken down to Finishers by age group
• Segmented further to Runners who ran a BQ time in each age group
• Final segmentation to identify 900 Runners who ran a BQ time by less than 5 minutes (those who were allowed to submit entries last week)
• Each of the 900 runners distributed, second by second, within the BQ - 5 Minute range
• Understanding from BAA that 5000 BQ spots remain, and a reported 8000 submitted entries competing for those 5000 spots
• BAA Rules and Regulations declare that runners are admitted entry according to fastest finish time
• Roughly 5000 spots divided by 8000 entries = 63%
• Of the 900 with BQ Time, 63% = 563 runners
• Accumulating finishers second-by-second from BQ - 4:59 on down
• The number of 563 cumulative runners is reached at a time of BQ - 1:34

Analysis and outcomes are reflected in charts below:

Data Table: Chicago Marathon BQ - 5 Finishers by Age Group and BQ - 5 Time

Ironman Lake Tahoe DNF (Did Not Finish) Rates Analysis: Comparison with Other Ironman Race DNF Rates

As Featured by Triathlete Magazine Online Edition

By Raymond Britt

The inaugural Ironman Lake Tahoe 2013 crushed triathletes beyond their wildest expectations, with a record-breaking high average finish time of 14 hours and 6 minutes, easily making it the toughest of the RunTri's Ranking of the Top 30 Toughest Ironman Races.

The venue featured breathtaking scenery, but at the end of the day, the views were not much consolation to the 20% who did not finish the race. Fast Facts:

• Registered Entrants: 2700+
• Did Not Start: 565 (21%)
• Finishers: 1,719
• DNF of Race Starters: 20+%; DNF on Bike: 267 (12%); DNF on Run: 182 (8%)

The stunning results at Ironman Lake Tahoe seemed to have the triathlon community buzzing (thousands of visitors from 800 cities visited our site's analysis, see map above, and interactive map at end of article): Did you hear what happened at Lake Tahoe? Did you hear about the weather? Did you hear about the DNFs?

Ultimately the biggest question seemed to be: How Ironman Lake Tahoe DNF Rates Compare With DNFs at Other Ironman Events?

The answers may surprise you.

1. Yes, Ironman Lake Tahoe Was a Punishing Race, and Some Age Groups Suffered More than Others
2. Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNF Rate falls far short of the 29% recorded at Ironman St. George in 2012, BUT . . .
3. There's No Guarantee that Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 Will see 20% DNF, Too; Conditions and DNFs Vary by Year. 

1. Yes, Ironman Lake Tahoe Was a Punishing Race, and Some Age Groups Suffered More than Others

Let's start with our analysis of Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNFs: overall, by age group, and within age groups, DNF rates on the bike or run.

2. Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNF Rate falls far short of the 29% recorded at Ironman St. George in 2012, BUT . . . 

But when Ironman St. George is eliminated from the comparison, Lake Tahoe's DNF rate is highest.  Among other high DNF events, Louisville and Texas don't come close to LT's 20%.

3. There's No Guarantee that Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 Will see 20% DNF, Too; Conditions and DNFs Vary by Year. 

Our Multi-Year Analysis of DNFs Overall (at Ironman Wisconsin) and by Age Groups (at Ironman Lake Placid) clearly illustrate that DNF rates can vary significantly from year to year.

Which leaves a couple of thousand athletes wondering: should I sign up for Ironman Lake Tahoe next year? If you like the area, the course, and are well-prepared, I'd suggest you sign up for this great race. 

Worried that next year may see 20% DNF again? Sure, it might happen. But I'd not be surprised to see a different DNF rate, more likely to be lower than higher, based on our Ironman Wisconsin and Iron Lake Placid analysis.

Still on the fence? Final thought -- whether DNF rate is 10%, 15% or 20% -- if it were easy, they wouldn't call it an Ironman. Don't be scared by DNF rates, I'd tell you. Prepare vigorously with expectations to be among the 80% of Finishers. 

Go Ahead. Sign up for 2014. Crush the course next time.

RB

About the Author

Raymond Britt: Kona Qualifier in 2002

Raymond Britt is a Marketing Executive and eCommerce Strategy Expert at WinSight, author and publisher of RunTriMedia, and a veteran Ironman triathlete and Boston Marathoner.

Selected current major eCommerce Strategy clients include: World Triathlon Corporation (Ironman Triathlon Global Site, Ironman Triathlon eCommerce Site); Brooks Sports, a Berkshire Hathaway Company (Brooks Running Shoes and Apparel eCommerce Site), and Peapod.com, at $500mm Revenue, World’s Leading Online Grocer (www.Peapod.com)

The results of recent strategies and initiatives include $100 million+ global revenue increase strategies, and building Mobile Commerce growth by up to $50 million for retail and eCommerce clients.

For more, see: Raymond Britt’s Complete Profile

Ironman 70.3 World Championship Las Vegas 2013 Results Analysis

Athletes competing in the 2013 Ironman 70.3 World Championship in Las Vegas battled their way through heavy weather -- rain fell steadily through the end of the bike leg -- to complete the race in an average finish time of 5 hours and 29 minutes.

Here's what's remarkable -- despite the tough, rainy conditions, 2013's average finish time was 15 minutes faster than the 2012 race. The swim and bike splits were fairly comparable in both years, but the difference in 2013 was a much faster run, averaging 1 hour and 50 minutes. Also interesting: DNF's in 2013 were only 1%, compared with 2% in 2012. Finally, 1974 triathletes finished in 2013 vs 1674 in 2012.

We analyzed the results for the 2013 race overall, by split, by age group, by correlation of bike and run splits, and compared to 2012 race results. For more, see our Toughest Ironman 70.3 Events, our Stats/Results/Analysis archive, or visit the home page.

For more, see our Toughest Ironman 70.3 Events, our Stats/Results/Analysis archive, or visit the home page.

Triathlete Magazine's Ironman Kona 2013 Preview Issue Features RunTri.com Stats and Analysis

We're proud to have our Ironman Kona statistics and analysis featured in Triathlete Magazine's Ironman Kona 2013 Preview issue. For more, see our complete Ironman Kona Coverage, and for more than 200 posts with stats, results and analysis, see our Stats/Results/Analysis Archive.

See our complete Ironman Kona 2012 analysis below. For more, see our Ironman Kona 2012 Race Photos, Ironman Kona 2012 Results Analysis by Country and our complete Ironman Kona Coverage.

Ironman Kona Racing Advice: What to Expect on Race Day

Ironman Kona, Hawaii: What to Expect on Race Day The Kona Ironman morning routine will be much like your other pre-race experiences, but this one will have a couple of differences. First. you will have to line-up to get formally body-marked – it’s a real process — and the line does not move quickly. It you are the kind that needs plenty of extra time in the transition area to feel relaxed, get to body-marking very early. Second, there will be television camera crews surrounding the athletes, focusing specifically on the pros and a few pre-selected age groupers. It’s the beginning of everything you’ve seen on the television broadcasts of the race. There’s Chrissie Wellington . . . there’s Chris McCormack . . . It will strike you at that moment: This is Real, I am Here. The fun begins. There’s only one thing to worry about: getting in the water before the cannon fires at 7am. The very narrow stair entrance to the ocean at Dig Me Beach means that it’s a single-file process. The line can extend even farther than the bodymarking line did. If you need to be in the water comfortably a few minutes before the race starts, get there early. Swim There is no Ironman swim that is as enjoyable as the one in Kailua-Kona Bay. Unless rough water conditions have churned up the sandy bottom, as happened in 2002, the water is clear and the views are spectacular. When you’re in the water before the start, just look around. It’s an amazing moment. You are really there. It’s everything you expected it would be. Then . . . boom! And cheers. Off you go. As you work your way into a good rhythm in the water, you’ll start to notice that you’re among a good, even polite, group of swimmers. Maybe this is more true for the slower swimmers, like me. In other Ironman races, with up to 2500 people in the water at the same time, the congestion can be unreal, the constant contact frustrating. But in Kona, you only seem to be around good swimmers, ones who know where they are going, who don’t bang into you. You’ll find the swim experience enjoyable because you’re really swimming with a group of swimmers like you. It’s like a group run, you’ll enjoy the company of others around you. It will be a new experience. And make sure you look down often to take in the scenery. It can be wonderful, and even distracting. But worth it. That’s the part of the swim you’ll remember most. Others who know better tell me that the Kona swim is typically breezy out to the turnaround, followed by a tougher return. The return to shore has been likened to a ‘water treadmill’; you don’t move forward as fast as you think. No matter, you’re there for the experience. Enjoy it. Bike One of the things I looked most forward to was the 112 mile ride through the lava fields. It looked like a spiritual experience as I watched it on television broadcasts, and it was exactly like that when I got there in person. But first, you have to get there. I break the Kona bike course into five parts: warmup, fast and fun, legendary climb, screaming downhill, headwinds going home. Warm up The first several miles of the bike course, in and around the town of Kona, seem to be designed to break up the pack somewhat. There are small climbs and descents that basically give cyclists the opportunity to warm up without going crazy. The first miles are such that you won’t see a lot of passing, and you’ll realize it’s best to just hold your position and get into a comfortable cycling rhythm. Fast and Fun: to Waikoloa When you get onto the Queen K highway, the best part of the bike course is ahead of you. The highway is nicely paved, the undulations are friendly and not too challenging. You’re fresh and you’ll feel like picking up the pace a little. Go ahead.  Just keep it in check; tougher miles are ahead. Look right, left and forward. All you will see is dried lava. You’re out in the middle of nowhere, and it’ll be nearly silent, except for the sound of cyclists pedaling. Mile-after-mile through fields that feel like an endless moonscape. Where else will you ever have an experience like that? It’s where you were meant to be. Your bike computer will say are fast, having a great ride. And that will be a true impression for the first hour or two. But when you reach the intersection for Waikoloa Village, it’s time for some serious work. Legendary Climb ‘The Road to Hawi . . .’ After Waikoloa, the course will toss some sharp drops and climbs in the next few miles. And then you will take a left turn toward the west side of the island, for the climb to Hawi. Check it out on the course map, there’s a point where the climb clearly begins, 12 miles before the top. Mile markers on the road will measure your progress. But they will creep toward you, not as fast as you might want them to. You start the climb thinking: 12 miles, that’s not too bad. And yes, it could be worse, but it’s not easy. Take this time to eat and hydrate if you can. The last five miles to Hawi are more exposed to wind, and you may have to battle that additional resistance. Gravity and wind. Not fun. But soon you’ll be in Hawi, an unremarkable town but for the role it plays in the Ironman. Then you’re heading downhill. Screaming Downhill: into the Wind What goes up, must come down. And after Hawi, you will retrace the course back downhill. It’s a manageable downhill, not so fast that you have to concentrate closely on staying in control. But it’s fast enough to help you gain back some of that speed you lost on the earlier climb. The bad news is that it’s only 12 miles or so downhill. Then things get a little challenging on the next 13 miles heading back toward Waikoloa. The wind may be getting stronger, and it’s all but certain to be blowing right at you. Headwinds Going Home You’ll reach the Waikoloa intersection feeling pretty good, and your bike computer might reveal that you’re having a good ride, speed and time. Each time I got there, I was thinking: hold this pace, and you’ll finish near a bike PR! No such luck in any of those cases. While the last 25 miles are relatively flat, it’s the pummeling headwinds that will all but kill those dreams. I remember riding 12 to 15 miles per hour, and just not being able to pick up the pace. The winds are maddening. And the mile markers are there, again, constantly reminding you how far you have not gone. Just hang in there. Everyone is dealing with the same conditions. Everyone will tell the same story when the race is over: the winds were everything you heard they would be. Rough. Run In 2004, I remember emerging from bike-to-run transition into a blast furnace of the most powerful heat I’d ever experienced on a race course. By the time you start running, the sun will be high in the sky, the humidity will feel like 100%, and the asphalt will be radiating even more heat. It takes time to acclimate to that kind of heat after swimming 2.4 miles and riding 112. The good news is that first half of the course provides many opportunities to run in the shade, while soaking yourself with ice and sponges at well-stocked aid stations. After heading east out of town on Alii Drive, the course takes you to an oceanfront turnaround near the 6 mile point. You’ll do a 180 degree turn and head back toward town. The run course is mostly flat for the first 12 miles or so. Then you’re back in town, facing Palani Drive. A friend and consistent top age-group finisher in Kona tells me: the race begins at Palani Drive. For him, he’s been running the first half of the marathon smartly. He turns it up a notch or two after he runs the 200 yards up Palani, then heads west on the Queen K. If you want to be competitive in Kona, he is indeed right. The last 13.1 miles in Kona are where the best crack wide open. You are completely exposed to the sun. There are long inclines to wear you down. And yes, for some reason, the several miles into and out of the Energy Lab can suck the life out of you. The competitive racers will use those challenges to their advantage. The rest of us – I race Kona for fun – can expect to run more conservatively, trying to maintain pace. The Energy Lab may not seem as rough as it does in Ironman broadcasts; it is survivable. Once you’re past that, 21 miles complete, just 5 miles to town, and you’re an Ironman. The next four miles have never been easy for me. They seem to be constantly uphill, and they go by so slowly. But when you reach Palani Drive, and make that right hand turn after the 25 mile marker, your best moments are ahead.

Finish

Savor that last mile. You will have trained and raced thousands of miles over the years to get there, For the first 1000 meters of it, you will probably be alone. Most of the spectators are at the finish line. In that relative solitude, reflect on all you’ve done to get to that point.

Two right turns later, and you’re on Alii Drive. Sacred Ground. At first you won’t see the finish line, but you’ll hear it. You keep going. Then you see the bright lights, you hear Mike Reilly welcoming home the athletes ahead of you.

Then it’s your turn. The best 100 yards in endurance sports. Slow down. High five spectators., cross the line with your favorite gesture as Mike Reilly says it:

You are An Ironman.

You'll never be the same. Welcome to the Club.