Ironman Lake Tahoe DNF (Did Not Finish) Rates Analysis: Comparison with Other Ironman Race DNF Rates

As Featured by Triathlete Magazine Online Edition

By Raymond Britt

The inaugural Ironman Lake Tahoe 2013 crushed triathletes beyond their wildest expectations, with a record-breaking high average finish time of 14 hours and 6 minutes, easily making it the toughest of the RunTri's Ranking of the Top 30 Toughest Ironman Races.

The venue featured breathtaking scenery, but at the end of the day, the views were not much consolation to the 20% who did not finish the race. Fast Facts:

• Registered Entrants: 2700+
• Did Not Start: 565 (21%)
• Finishers: 1,719
• DNF of Race Starters: 20+%; DNF on Bike: 267 (12%); DNF on Run: 182 (8%)

The stunning results at Ironman Lake Tahoe seemed to have the triathlon community buzzing (thousands of visitors from 800 cities visited our site's analysis, see map above, and interactive map at end of article): Did you hear what happened at Lake Tahoe? Did you hear about the weather? Did you hear about the DNFs?

Ultimately the biggest question seemed to be: How Ironman Lake Tahoe DNF Rates Compare With DNFs at Other Ironman Events?

The answers may surprise you.

1. Yes, Ironman Lake Tahoe Was a Punishing Race, and Some Age Groups Suffered More than Others
2. Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNF Rate falls far short of the 29% recorded at Ironman St. George in 2012, BUT . . .
3. There's No Guarantee that Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 Will see 20% DNF, Too; Conditions and DNFs Vary by Year. 

1. Yes, Ironman Lake Tahoe Was a Punishing Race, and Some Age Groups Suffered More than Others

Let's start with our analysis of Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNFs: overall, by age group, and within age groups, DNF rates on the bike or run.

2. Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNF Rate falls far short of the 29% recorded at Ironman St. George in 2012, BUT . . . 

But when Ironman St. George is eliminated from the comparison, Lake Tahoe's DNF rate is highest.  Among other high DNF events, Louisville and Texas don't come close to LT's 20%.

3. There's No Guarantee that Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 Will see 20% DNF, Too; Conditions and DNFs Vary by Year. 

Our Multi-Year Analysis of DNFs Overall (at Ironman Wisconsin) and by Age Groups (at Ironman Lake Placid) clearly illustrate that DNF rates can vary significantly from year to year.

Which leaves a couple of thousand athletes wondering: should I sign up for Ironman Lake Tahoe next year? If you like the area, the course, and are well-prepared, I'd suggest you sign up for this great race. 

Worried that next year may see 20% DNF again? Sure, it might happen. But I'd not be surprised to see a different DNF rate, more likely to be lower than higher, based on our Ironman Wisconsin and Iron Lake Placid analysis.

Still on the fence? Final thought -- whether DNF rate is 10%, 15% or 20% -- if it were easy, they wouldn't call it an Ironman. Don't be scared by DNF rates, I'd tell you. Prepare vigorously with expectations to be among the 80% of Finishers. 

Go Ahead. Sign up for 2014. Crush the course next time.

RB

Ironman Texas 2013 Results Analysis

See 2014 Results: Ironman Texas 2014 Results Analysis
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Triathletes who have finished Ironman Texas in the past will tell you it's one of the tougher races on the Ironman calendar, and the 2013 event more than proved the point. Nearly 2900 athletes registered to compete, and after 13% DNS, and a remarkable 17%, or 408, DNF, the remaining 2,046 finishers took an average 13 hours and 40 minutes to complete the race. The result was 22 minutes longer than the 13:18 average finish time in 2012 and more than an hour slower than the average time to finish an Ironman:12:35. The main differences between Ironman Texas 2012 and 2013 were an additional 11 minutes on the bike, and a marathon took an additional 18 minutes -- 5 hours and 35 minutes.

Typically we see the bike split consume 50% of an Ironman finish time, with 35% spent on the run. Not this year: 46% on the bike, and a staggering 41% on the run.

These DNF rates are not too dissimilar than those at Ironman St. George 2012: 19%

Athletes whose bike/run time landed in the upper left hand corner -- they went after a faster bike split,  left too much energy on the bike course, and suffered mightily on the run. The share of athletes in that upper left hand corner is among the highest we've observed. At the same time, note the lower right hand corner; that space is reserved for those who held back on the bike, with extra energy to run a better marathon.

For more, see:

• RunTri's Toughest/Easiest Ironman Triathlons
• Ironman Texas 2012 Results Analysis
• How Much Time Does it Take To Finish an Ironman
• RunTri's Archive of Ironman/Marathon Stats/Analysis/Results
• Run/Tri Home/Site Map

Three Continents, Three Triathlons: Comparing Ironman 70.3 Events in Busselton, Mallorca and St. George

We compared results analyses of three recent triathlons, on three continents: Ironman 70.3 Busselton, Ironman 70.3 Mallorca, and Ironman 70.3 St. George to see which was fastest, overall or by split, which had the most finishers, DNS and/or DNFs, and how average finish times compared by division. Here are the results.

Ironman Triathlon: 65 Seconds of Inspiration and More

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Kona Stats and Performance Analysis

• Ironman Kona 2012 Results Analysis Overall, by Age Group
• Ironman Kona 2012 Results Analysis by Country
• Ironman Kona 2012 Photos
• Ironman Kona 2011 Results Analysis
• Ironman Kona Hawaii By The Numbers: Statistics/Analysis
• Finish Time Averages by Age Group
• Swim, Bike, Run, Finish Times
• Average Swim, Bike, Run, Finish Times by Age Group
• Kona Correlation Between DNF Rates and Finish Times
• Kona Participants by Age
• Kona Participants by Race Category

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Ironman Average Finish Times and Swim, Bike, Run Split Comparisons

North America Finish, Split Times by Age Group Ironman Arizona Ironman Canada Ironman Coeur d'Alene Ironman Florida Ironman Lake Placid Ironman Louisville Ironman New York US Championship Ironman Mont-Tremblant Ironman St. George Ironman Texas Ironman Wisconsin Europe / South Africa Finish, Split Times by Age Group Ironman Austria Ironman Germany Ironman France Ironman Lanzarote Ironman Regensburg Ironman South Africa Ironman Sweden Ironman Switzerland Ironman UK Ironman Wales Asia/Pacific Finish, Split Times by Age Group Ironman Australia Ironman Korea Ironman Melbourne Ironman New Zealand Ironman Western Australia Central/South America Finish, Split Times by Age Group Ironman Brazil Ironman Cozumel Male Age Group Finish, Split Times by Ironman Male 18-24 Male 25-29 Male 30-34 Male 35-39 Male 40-44 Male 45-49 Male 50-54 Male 55-59 Male 60-64 Male 65-69 Male 70-74 Male Pro Female Age Group Finish, Split Times by Ironman Female 18-24 Female 25-29 Female 30-34 Female 35-39 Female 40-44 Female 45-49 Female 50-54 Female 55-59 Female 60-64 Female Pro

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Qualifying for Kona: Qualifying Times and Slots by Race and Age Group

North America Qualifying Times, Slots by Age Group Ironman Arizona Ironman Canada Ironman Coeur d'Alene Ironman Florida Ironman Lake Placid Ironman Louisville Ironman St. George Ironman Texas Ironman Wisconsin Europe / South Africa Qualifying Times, Slots by Age Group Ironman Austria Ironman Germany Ironman France Ironman Lanzarote Ironman Regensburg Ironman South Africa Ironman Switzerland Ironman UK Ironman Wales Asia/Pacific Qualifying Times, Slots by Age Group Ironman Australia Ironman Korea Ironman Melbourne Ironman New Zealand Ironman Western Australia Central/South America Qualifying Times, Slots by Age Group Ironman Brazil Ironman Cozumel Male Age Group Qualifying Times, Slots by Ironman Male 18-24 Male 25-29 Male 30-34 Male 35-39 Male 40-44 Male 45-44 Male 50-54 Male 55-59 Male 60-64 Male 65-69 Female Age Group Qualifying Times, Slots by Ironman Female 18-24 Female 25-29 Female 30-34 Female 35-39 Female 40-44 Female 45-49 Female 50-54 Female 55-59 Female 60-64 Extra Credit Complete Race Analysis/Statistics Kona Qualifying Times Kona Qualifying Slots Kona by the Number

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Ironman Race Comparisons

• Ironman Swim Courses
• Ironman Bike Courses
• Ironman Run Courses
• Detailed Analysis
• Ironman Finishers per Year
• Ironmen and Ironwomen: Which races have the most men? Most women?
• Which Country Has the Fastest Triathletes?
• Comparing Races with Different Cutoff Times
• Can it Really Take 17 Hours to Finish an Ironman?
• How do Ironman France Finishers Beat a 16-Hour Cut-off Time?

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Essentials

• How Much Time to Finish an Ironman?
• How Much Time to Finish a Half Ironman?
• How Long to Finish an International Distance Triathlon?
• How Long will it take me to Finish a Marathon?
• How Much Training Time is Necessary?
• Planning Your Training/Racing Season
• Getting Razor Sharp: Periodization
• Balancing the Numbers: Training Log Tips
• Training Plan Examples

Toughest/Easiest Ironman Swim Course: Comparing 25 Ironman Races

There are fantastic swim courses on the worldwide ironman circuit. Among my favorites are Kona, New Zealand and Florida. I've completed the Ironman swim in 29 races, and while I'm not a great swimmer, my swim times have sometimes varied from course to course more than expected.

So I did an analysis of 100,000 Ironman finishers to try to answer the question: Is it possible that the degree of difficulty swimming 2.4 miles differs by location?

The data says yes, if you assume that all swim courses are measured reasonably accurately. Here's how they compare on average. Then continue reading: there's much more to the story. 

Factors that impact average swim times can range from a very tight swimming venue, very rough open water, or speedy currents. And these factors can have dramatic impacts. 

In the slightly dated chart above (newer one to be posted soon) comparing 25 Ironman swims, Cozumel is shown as one of the fastest at an average 1:08 split. However, at Ironman Cozumel 2012, the average time was 1:28:59, see chart below. Reports from Cozumel swimmers indicated a particularly challenge last section of the swim, and some athletes described their times as 10-15 minutes slower than they expected.

And swimmers at the Ironman US Championship 2012 in New York City cruised with the current to an average 51 minute swim split.

Want to dig deeper: here's the data for every race and every age group:


Ironman Average Finish Times and Swim, Bike, Run Split Comparisons

North America Finish, Split Times by Age Group Ironman Arizona Ironman Canada Ironman Coeur d'Alene Ironman Florida Ironman Lake Placid Ironman Louisville Ironman New York US Championship Ironman Mont-Tremblant Ironman St. George Ironman Texas Ironman Wisconsin Europe / South Africa Finish, Split Times by Age Group Ironman Austria Ironman Germany Ironman France Ironman Lanzarote Ironman Regensburg Ironman South Africa Ironman Sweden Ironman Switzerland Ironman UK Ironman Wales Asia/Pacific Finish, Split Times by Age Group Ironman Australia Ironman Korea Ironman Melbourne Ironman New Zealand Ironman Western Australia Central/South America Finish, Split Times by Age Group Ironman Brazil Ironman Cozumel Male Age Group Finish, Split Times by Ironman Male 18-24 Male 25-29 Male 30-34 Male 35-39 Male 40-44 Male 45-49 Male 50-54 Male 55-59 Male 60-64 Male 65-69 Male 70-74 Male Pro Female Age Group Finish, Split Times by Ironman Female 18-24 Female 25-29 Female 30-34 Female 35-39 Female 40-44 Female 45-49 Female 50-54 Female 55-59 Female 60-64 Female Pro

For even more detail on all races, visit our Toughest/Easiest Ironman Race Analysis and our Complete Archive of Stats and Results Analysis.

Qualifying for Kona: Qualifying Times by Ironman Races and Age Groups

Kona Qualifying Times Results Analysis from Recent Ironman Triathlons.

North America Ironman Arizona Ironman Canada Ironman Coeur d'Alene Ironman Florida Ironman Lake Placid Ironman Louisville Ironman St. George Ironman Texas Ironman Wisconsin Europe / South Africa Ironman Austria Ironman Germany Ironman France Ironman Lanzarote Ironman Regensburg Ironman South Africa Ironman Switzerland Ironman UK Ironman Wales Asia/Pacific Ironman Australia Ironman Korea Ironman Melbourne Ironman New Zealand Ironman Western Australia Central/South America Ironman Brazil Ironman Cozumel Male Age Groups Male 18-24 Male 25-29 Male 30-34 Male 35-39 Male 40-44 Male 45-54 Male 50-54 Male 55-59 Male 60-64 Male 65-69 Female Age Groups Female 18-24 Female 25-29 Female 30-34 Female 35-39 Female 40-44 Female 45-49 Female 50-54 Female 60-64 Extra Credit Complete Race Analysis/Statistics Kona Qualifying Times Kona Qualifying Slots Kona by the Numbers

For more, see our comprehensive analysis -- Qualify for Kona,  Ironman Kona Qualifying Times and Slots, calendar of Kona Qualifying Races -- as well as our complete Ironman Kona coverage.