Showing posts with label Ironman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ironman. Show all posts

Ironman, Triathlon, Marathon: Analysis, Results, Advice, Photos, Statistics and more

By Raymond Britt 

RunTri.com, recipient of Triathlete Magazine's First Top Website award, includes 600+ in-depth articles, advice, race coverage, results analysis and stats, for marathoners and triathletes 

 Just about everything you need to know about training for and racing great marathons and Ironman triathlons, from Boston to Kona, and beyond.
Stats and Analysis
Extra Credit



Hardest Ironman Course? Easiest? RunTri's 30 Toughest Ironman Races

By Raymond Britt -- There is no such thing as an Easy Ironman. Covering 140.6 miles on any course, any day, in any variety of conditions, is a monumental challenge. Everyone who crosses the finish line knows how hard an Ironman triathlon is. But we were curious . . .

The RunTri Challenge Index.  We had long been interested in a quantitative comparison, but found none, so we created the list -- the RunTri Challenge Index. RunTri analyzed results of more than 150,000 finishers (each year sees about 65,000 finishers) competing in 30 Ironman distance triathlons (including Lake Tahoe, Sweden, and Mont-Tremblant, which still need to be added) to answer the question: which Ironman triathlon is hardest? Easiest? We've completed this analysis twice, and both are presented here.

RunTri's Toughest/Easiest Ironman Races: Edition

Our rankings, portions of which have been published in Triathlete Magazine issues, have taken our original analysis into a deeper, more comprehensive direction, ranking races by discipline -- swim, bike or run -- to help athletes more accurately assess which races are easiest or toughest, depending on which elements of their triathlon skills are best or weakest. (we know you'll have many questions; see FAQs further down in this post)




















RunTri's Original Top 25 Toughest/Easiest Ironman Races

Next, our original analysis, the Top 25 Toughest/Easiest Ironman Races and related analysis. Our original analytics in response to key questions about comparing the races still hold true for the new rankings.



We expect there will be much discussion about this list, and we are pleased to start the conversation. Is it perfect? No, and it doesn't pretend to be. But we've gone to great lengths to verify and validate as much as possible.

We've finished 29 Ironman triathlons (as documented in the book Qualifying for Kona: The Road to the Ironman World Championship), including nearly half the races in this analysis, some multiple times, and are more than familiar with the difficulty of many others. In addition, we've also conducted in-depth results analysis for most ranked races. The ranking is more than numbers, as we have taken care to test available qualitative factors where possible.

Frequently Asked Questions

Discussions and threads on chat boards from iamtri.com to beginnertriathlete.com, slowtwitch.com, to Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn have been animated and active for quite some time. Each contains thoughtful observations and questions, including the following:
See notes below to understand how the list was generated, how we reconciled some non-quantitative factors, and discussion of some suggested alternative approaches. To start, dive into our results analysis by race or more detail behind our Toughest/Easiest Ironman Triathlon Rankings.
Europe / South Africa
Asia/Pacific

Central/South America

How many athletes were analyzed? The initial data were compiled for one or more years for each race, involving more than 50,000 athletes across races.  This number included 41,000+ finishers, plus several thousand who raced in half ironman 70.3 events that offered slots. As of 2012, new races have been added and more than 65,000 athletes are registered to compete in 30 Ironman events.



Data. We cut and pivot-tabled the data several ways, modes, medians, standard deviations, etc., and the results are similar enough that we are using average finish times. The data are updated as needed (e.g., Louisville), if new results change the ranking, and are based on new race data availability. For example, the Inaugural Ironman Texas earned a spot among the toughest overall at 13:17. We'll be revising the rankings to reflect recent results, shortly.

For further details and links to data for each race, see Detailed Comparisons between races.

For similar comparative charts, see our Toughest/Easiest Swim, Bike, Run analyses.

Wondering if the list differs by Age Group? See our AG Analysis table, below.


Another alternative view: look at Kona Qualifying times by Age Group.


Kona: For most triathletes, Kona would rank in the top 5, if not toughest overall. World-class Kona qualifiers are, of course, very skilled, and their average finish times are deceptively fast: average finish time is 11:37. This time would rank Kona among the 'easiest' Ironman events, and it's misleading in that respect. We've put Kona at the top of the chart, without finish time data to account for Kona's universally acknowledged difficulty.



Splits for 2002 to 2010 are shown in the chart, above. Comparative splits for 2010 vs other races are available in our detailed comparisons. See Kona Qualifying Times for an alternative view.  

DNFs. We've concluded that the impact of DNFs is effectively captured in the average times. Harder courses, harsher conditions lead to higher DNF but also higher average times. Kona is a perfect example; as our analysis of DNFs and Average finish times 2002 to 2010 clearly shows.


In another example, at St. George, DNFs were higher than usual, but so is the average time of those who finished. One goes with the other. IM Louisville in 2010 is another  example, due to difficult conditions, and we adjusted as appropriate.  See our North American Ironman DNF analysis and Ironman Wisconsin 2002-2010 DNS and DNF Analysis.


Kona Qualifiers vs Lottery Winners: DNS and DNF. Another look at DNFs: Kona lottery slot winners had a much lower DNF rate than Kona qualifiers, on the Kona course itself. Does that mean lottery winners are better triathletes than qualifiers? Certainly not. But those who did show up -- after a 9% DNS rate -- did apparently fight harder to cross the finish line.


More Athletes per Race = Weaker Triathletes? Most Ironman races reach 'Sold Out' status quickly, though the maximum number of athletes per race differs. Not only that, but the cap on many races increases annually, especially in North America where several races feature close to 3000 entrants.


Do races that allow upwards of 3,000 entrants end up having a weaker field overall, resulting in a tougher rating? It could be the case, except by the time race day arrives, as many as 500 entrants choose not to race. Those that show up, for the most part, have trained hard and are prepared to race. And generally, lower DNF rates confirm the point (except, as noted often, when extraordinary conditions present)


Weather. Course conditions do vary from year to year, but overall results tend to be less impacted than you may expect. Personal experiences on races courses more than 5 times, through sun, heat, humidity,  wind, rain, hail, fog and almost snow, bear this out.

However, in the cases where conditions do, in fact, lead to drastically different times in a race from one year to the next, e.g., Wisconsin (weather-affected DNF rates; chart below) and Louisville 2009 vs. 2010, we make adjustments depending on data availability. 


Speedsters -- Average vs Top x%. For those who might believe a top 100 or top 10% per age group might sway the analysis, the answer is generally no, it won't. Our analysis of 17 races -- Top 100 results vs All Finishers -- still ranks St. George, Louisville and UK among the toughest, Lanzarote and Lake Placid next tier, and Austria, Regensburg and Western Australia still are among the fastest. Others like Wisconsin, Cozumel, Canada and France vary somewhat, and we've factored that in to the overall results.


For another way to test this hypothesis, see our Kona Qualifying Times by race and age group.

Europe. Others might say faster times in Europe indicate better athletes. I'd say there is a small degree of truth, based on personal experience racing in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. But the difference is less than you would think; see above 'Speedsters' analysis.

Further, the courses in Europe have been modified to reduce some of the challenge. Switzerland in particular; those of us who raced there a decade ago faced a daunting, steep, technical 3-loop course. That's long gone now.

The Austria time strikes us as too good to be true, so did the 5:46 average bike split, for example (and it's even faster in 2011). Same is true on some other courses. Here's the evidence: bike splits examples across the board.


And we've looked at the 'better athlete' question a different way, comparing Kona qualifiers from 13 top countries, competing head-to-head by age group at Kona 2010. the results are inconclusive overall; country dominance varies by age group, as illustrated in the chart below. For more, see Which Countries Have the Fastest Triathletes?



What about Challenge Roth? Performance there raises skepticism about course measurement; we've raced Roth, we agree. So it's not included.

Lanzarote. Yes, the bike course at Ironman Lanzarote is a monster, with a roughly 7-hour average time. Yes, your friend says Lanzarote is as tough as Kona, and on the bike course, that's probably true. But, surprisingly, the average marathon times in Lanzarote are quite fast, in the mid 4-hour range.

Combined, Lanzarote's average finish time is a brisk 12:30 or so. It's been that way for the last 2 years. One factor behind these fast times is self-selection; a younger group of triathletes race Lanzarote. Taking that into consideration, we rank Lanzarote at the 13-hour level, a more likely time if the field's demographic was consistent with most other races.

Cut-off Time Adjustments. Some European races have shorter overall cutoff times. France and Switzerland ends in 16 hours, not 17. Germany ends in 15 hours.  We've done the analysis to adjust for the difference using Ironman Canada results and calculating average 15 and 16 hour cutoff times. The answer: add 26 minutes to Germany's time, and 11 minutes to Switzerland's time to make all three comparable to all other 17 hour cutoff races.


The 50% Rule. Another benchmark we look at is what we call The 50% Rule. In race after race, the bike split is approximately 50% of overall time.


Even for races with 15 or 16 hour cutoff times, this test holds true. If the bike split was 60% in these races, reflecting faster marathons to beat the cutoff, we'd be more concerned.

Flat Bike Courses = Easier? Many assume: Ironman Florida and Arizona should be considered 'easy' because the bike course is so flat. Flat does not always = faster. Ask any pro who expected a PR bike split on either course, and left disappointed: flat is deceptively hard. Note: no Ironman bike split record has been set on either course; not even close.

Same muscles used 112 miles, no variation, it takes a surprising toll. Race Florida and you'll actually wish for hills and descents, anything for the chance to use different leg muscles. In Arizona, expect brisk desert winds to hinder your progress; see how speeds drop sharply by lap 3 on the bike course.



Correlation between Bike and Run Splits. We've cut the data to show the correlation between bike and run splits for several races, including Kona, Wisconsin, Canada, Louisville and others. Click on the bike or run split link for the respective races above. Below, the Ironman Wisconsin 2010 chart.


Other Toughest Lists. For perspective, we've done similar analysis for top 25 marathons and 35 half ironman 70.3 races. Take a look.


So. Reading the data literally Ironman Switzerland and Ironman Austria appear to have the fastest average time, while Ironman St. George is clearly the hardest, followed by Ironman Malaysia and Ironman Wisconsin. But you have to dig deeper, into the race splits, to see what makes these races stand out. See links above.

New Zealand, Arizona, Florida, Lake Placid, Canada and Wisconsin times seem spot-on, based on our experience racing there. Malaysia triathletes clearly suffer in the heat and humidity, perhaps the same was true in Cozumel.

Finale. After all the charts, tables, debates, and comments, one thing remains definitive: there is no such thing as an easy Ironman triathlon. Swim 2.4 miles, ride 112 miles, run a marathon, and you've done what you once -- be honest -- considered impossible.



All of us, at one time or another, felt the same way. But we committed, we trained, we started and we finished the toughest triathlon there is: an Ironman triathlon.

No matter where in the world you race, getting to the Ironman finish line is special. We've shared the experience, we've conquered it. Nothing was easy, it was often tougher than expected, and without question, it was worth it to be a proud member of an triathlon's most exclusive club: Ironman finisher.

Feel free to Contact us with questions or comments.

-- Raymond Britt, 29-time Ironman finisher.

Arizona Senator Kyrsten Simeno Finishes Ironman New Zealand with a Sub 13-Hour PR Time



By Raymond Britt

United States Senator Kyrsten Simeno of Arizona finished the 2019 edition of Ironman New Zealand in a total time of 12 hours, 59 minutes and 57 seconds. This was her third Ironman finish, and the sub-13 finish time is a new personal best. 

The 35th anniversary Ironman New Zealand, held in Taupo NZ, consists of a 2.4 mile swim in Lake Taupo, a 112 mile bike ride and a 26.6 mile run. Her splits and rank in the race after each discipline were:
  • Swim 1:28:14, she was in 1,075th place out of nearly 1500 entrants
  • Bike 6:50:42, she was able to pass 122 cyclists on the bike, ranked 953rd at end
  • Run 4:27:08, running a solid marathon, she passed 223 to finish the race ranked 730th overall
Simeno competed in the women's 40-44 age group, finishing 27th among these athletes. It was a solid performance -- the average finish time for women aged 40-44 is roughly than 13 hours and 30 minutes. 

(photo provided to media by Kyrsten Simena)

For more, see our previous Ironman New Zealand race coverage or return to RunTri.com home page.

The World's Top 25 Best Triathlons: Finding Your Perfect Race

Our analysis of the world's best triathlons has been covered by major media around the world, and our most recent feature is in the May 2012 issue of Triathlete Magazine: The World's Best Races. We've raced in more than 40 triathlons around the world, and know what great triathlons should be like. Beyond that, we've analyzed results for of than 150,000 triathletes in over 100 different triathlons.

Our featured analysis focused on the World's Best Ironman Triathlons, but in a unique way. The 'Best' triathlon really depends on what the triathlete's abilities and goals.
  1. First-Timers or PR Seekers: For those choosing a first race, or for those who want to set a PR, the best races are ones with faster times, lower DNFs.
  2. Crush the Competition/Qualify for Kona: But for others who have the fitness, ability and desire to crush the competition, and maybe even qualify for Kona, the best races are the toughest in every aspect.
  3. Top 50% to Top 25%: Finally, for the athletes somewhere in-between, the best races are the ones that play to their strengths -- better cyclists can take on races with tougher bike courses easier run courses; same principal could work in reverse for strong runners who need a bike course that is somewhat forgiving
Here are some general parameters to consider when matching your goals and abilities with your potential best races.

With those criteria in mind, we created the we took a completely new approach to ranking the Best Races: we compared and contrasted 30 different Ironman triathlons based on the relationship between their bike and run splits. Here's our analysis as published in Triathlete Magazine, to help pick your best race based on your fitness, abilities and goals.
  1. First-Timers or PR Seekers: Races with fast bike splits and fast marathon courses, Green races in lower left quadrant of the graph
  2. Crush the Competition/Qualify for Kona: It you've got the ability and fitness to outgun the field, choose the toughest race courses, upper right quadrant, labeled in red
  3. Top 50% to Top 25%: If you're a strong runner, but cycling's more of a challenge, choose a race with a faster bike course, upper left quadrant, orange labels; if cycling's your strength, a course with faster run splits may be best for you.

 A More Traditional View: Top 25 Best Triathlons

For great races that afford outstanding experiences, regardless of difficulty, these are our Top 25 Best Triathlons, in approximate Calendar Order. How do these races compare? We've done the analysis for most full and half ironman distance events on the list: Toughest/Easiest Ironman; Toughest/Easiest Half Ironman.




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Predicting Your Ironman Finish Time, Based on Half Ironman 70.3 Results

One of the frequent questions we hear: What can I expect my ironman time to be, based on my half ironman finish time in another race?

The answer, based on our analysis of 25 top ironman race times and 25 top half ironman race times: on average:

Full Ironman Time = half ironman time * 2.1 = 2x half ironman time + 40 minutes

Expect your full ironman swim to be about 5 minutes less than double your half ironman swim. Double your bike split and add 15 minutes. And double your half ironman time and add about 30 minutes. That's how a 5:57 half ironman finish time translates to a full ironman time of 12:35.

To address the naturally occurring variations from race to race, we have matched full- and half-ironman distance races that take place on the same course (e.g., China), races that take place in the same country, and races that appear to share common characteristics such as climate, terrain, etc.

These pairings are, of course, subject to change. Use your race experience and the data on this chart to predict a most accurate ironman finish time based on your half ironman results.

For more, see our new analysis by Age Group for New Zealand and Texas vs New Zealand.


For more, see our Analysis of Top 25 Ironman Races and Top Ironman 70.3 Races.

Lance Armstrong Ironman Triathlon Results Analysis

Lance Armstrong's doping confession: why now? The answer could be: Ironman Triathlon.

There's speculation that Lance wants to resume the ironman triathlon racing career he began in 2012. Starting with his first Ironman 70.3, in Panama last year, Lance raced with and ultimately beat some of the best longer-distance triathletes in the world.

Undoubtedly, he had hoped to compete in the Ironman World Championship, Kona Hawaii in 2012, before he was  suspended from competition following USADA's doping charges.

If Lance earns the chance to compete again in ironman triathlon, could he become world champion? Our analysis of his successful 2012 season suggests the answer could, someday, be 'yes'.

Lance Armstrong Ironman 2012 Results Analysis
  1. Ironman 70.3 Panama (3:50:55, 2nd place)
  2. Ironman 70.3 Texas (3:54:32, 7th place)
  3. Ironman 70.3 St. Croix (4:07:08, 3rd place) (also see our Triathlete Magazine article about Lance's race)
  4. Ironman 70.3 Florida (3:45:38 1st place)
  5. Ironman 70.3 Hawaii (3:50:55, 1st Place)
Also see Lance Armstrong Inspires Ironman Triathletes in 4000+ Worldwide Cities.

Ironman Hawaii 70.3 Results Analysis






 




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Previous Lance Armstrong Ironman Racing Articles: Ironman Florida


In his fourth event of the year, Lance Armstrong overpowered the field at Ironman 70.3 Florida, winning his first major triathlon in a time of 3:45:38. After seeing his lead evaporate on the run in each of three previous attempts, Lance finally put it all together in Florida to crush his nearest competitor, Maxim Kriat, by 11 minutes.



Lance had a good start. His swim of 24:52 put him in the top 4 out of the water.


Lance won the race on the bike. Lance returned to Tour de France time trial form: his 27mph bike split was untouchable. He covered the first 38.5 miles on the bike at a pace of 29mph. He slowed to 25mph on the remaining 17.5 miles of the bike course, to conserve energy for the run. Exiting Transition 2 with a 10 minute lead, Lance never looked back, nor did he slow down.


Lance simply dominated the 13.1 mile run course. He ran the first 4.4 miles at 5:40/mile pace, and only slowed slightly to 5:45/mile for the next 4.4 mile loop. Wrapping up the run in 1:15:56, Armstrong crossed the finish line in 3:45:38, his fastest Ironman 70.3 race, for a richly deserved first victory.


Facing a relatively light field of pro men, it was not completely unexpected that Lance would win. It's also not terribly surprising to see Lance finish the 56-mile bike course a full 10 minutes faster than his closest rival.




What does seem to stand out is his run split. He had been broken on the run in his three previous races, but this time he delivered the fastest run split overall.





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Previous Lance Armstrong Ironman Racing Articles
Featured by Trlathlete Magazine

After three events -- Ironman 70.3 Panama and Ironman 70.3 Texas and the just-completed Ironman 70.3 St. Croix -- Lance's results are remarkably consistent: a decent swim, followed by taking over the lead on the bike (and setting a course record at St. Croix), then holding onto the lead at the start of the run. Here's how Lance's results in St. Croix compared to the Top 10 Finishers.



The problem is, in each event, he's lost the lead and the chance at victory by faltering on the run. Lance was known for toughing it out to win brutal stages year after year at Tour de France by outlasting his toughest competition.  As of yet, he's been unable to demonstrate the same unrelenting drive on the half ironman run course; others are making him suffer.

Here's a summary of Lance's finish rank in each specific part of the race: his performance within swim, bike and run, relative to the Top 10 Overall finishers. The pattern is clear: 6th or 7th fastest swimmer, fastest cyclist, 6th or worse runner. No question about it -- he's not going to win until he learns how to win on the run.


In Panama, he had the 6th fastest swim, the 2nd fastest bike split and the 6th fastest run; all three individual performances resulted in 2nd place overall. In Texas, he was 7th out of the water, then hammered the top bike split, then paid for it by running the worst half marathon of the Top 10, finishing 7th overall. And in St. Croix, it wasn't just how Lance ranked relative to other top 10 pros in the swim, bike or run; it was also the remarkably large gap between his time and the swim and run leaders' times.








Where did Lance really lose Ironman 70.3 St. Croix? On the second loop of the half marathon. He was holding his own through the first 6.2 miles, but it all fell apart after that. His 7 minute 40 second gap between the first and second look was the worst of any in the top 10.


And in each discipline -- swim, bike and run -- Lance turned in his slowest times yet.


 



Ironman 70.3 Panama and Texas Notes

Compare the splits of his 2nd place finish at Ironman 70.3 Panama with the splits of his 7th place finish at Ironman 70.3 Texas.



Below are recaps of Lance's races at Panama and Texas. Click the appropriate links to see our complete analysis of Lance's performance at each event.

Ironman 70.3 Texas Recap

Lance Armstrong started Ironman 70.3 Texas with a decent swim (15th place), took it easy on the first 28 miles of the bike course (25mph) before unloading a 28mph second lap to take the lead heading into the run course. The lead was short-lived, and from there, things only got worse: suffering to the point of walking the late stages of the run, he settled for a disappointing 7th place overall.


One look at Lance's run time, compared to the rest of the top 10 finishers, tells the story. At 1:22:38, he ran 1:30 slower than the next slowest runner, and he was a full 8 minutes slower than Timothy O'Donnell, the race winner.

For more see our complete coverage of Lance Armstrong's race at Ironman 70.3 Texas.

Ironman 70.3 Panama Recap

Lance Armstrong finished second in his debut half Ironman race, coming within 42 seconds of victory.  For most of the 13.1 mile run course, it looked like Lance would win, but Olympic triathlon medal winner Bevan Docherty caught Armstrong in the last mile, in dramatic fashion, to take the win. 


Lance raced very well: he had the 10th fastest swim, 3rd fastest bike split and 8th fastest run.  He had the finish line in sight . . . he was so close . . . could he have won? Could it be Lance lost the race with slow transitions?



For more, see our analysis of Lance's race in detail to see where he might have saved precious seconds needed to win.

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