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Showing posts sorted by date for query ironman st george 2012. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Ironman Kona Qualifying Times: Comparing 30 Ironman Races



By Raymond Britt -- What finish time do you need to qualify for Kona? It depends on the race you choose, your age group, the number of Kona slots allocated to your age group. Because Ironman races can vary significantly in terms of difficulty, Kona qualifying times can vary widely by race as well.

We've done the analysis to develop the most comprehensive Kona Qualifying Times and Slots analysis on the web, ranging from top-level summary tables to drill-down detail, by race and by age group. We've conducted this analysis annually, and will present stats for 2013, 2011 and 2010 here. If you want to qualify for Kona, these are the times you need to beat. [Also see Ironman Races, Locations, Dates, Kona Qualifying Slots by Event, for the 2013 Season]

Kona Qualifying Times, Slots, and Faster Times by Age Group

More than 2000 athletes register for the Ironman Triathlon World Championship in Kona, Hawaii. For most, it's an incredible feat to earn the right to race in Kona.

Of more than 75,000 competitors in 30 Ironman races and 6 Ironman 70.3 events, only about 1800, or 2.5%, will qualify to race with the best of the best, in Ironman's premier championship race.

We're not sure why the World Triathlon Corporation (an excellent and inspiring team that I'm privileged to consult for) has decided to keep many results private.

So we publish here Kona qualifying Times, Slots, and Change in Qualifying Times for the select races willing to share their results. Some terrific performances in these races, and congratulations to all qualifiers. For complete qualifying times for 2011 and 2010, they are further down this post.


The biggest challenge of all: qualifying times are getting faster, in most age groups and most events. On average, qualifying times dropped around 2%this year. That means for example, if it took 10 hours and 30 minutes to qualify in your age group, that 2% improvement means you'll need to finish 13 minutes faster to qualify next year.


In previous years, we presented complete Kona Qualifying Times and Slots comparisons for all Ironman Triathlons in 2011 with some updates for 2012. In preparing the analysis for those posts, we were able to access data for all events.

Unfortunately, this year Kona Qualifying results have not been released for most races on the calendar. Some European and Asia/Pac events proudly shared Kona results; all North American races did not.


Kona Qualifying Races and Times by Age Group: 2011



Kona Qualifying Races and Slots by Age Group: 2011




Kona Qualifying Times Results Analysis By Ironman Races and by Age Groups






Kona Qualifying Races, Slots and Times: 2010

This table outlines 2010 qualifying times for the last qualifier in each division across 25 of the best Ironman triathlons in the world.


If you want to have a chance to qualify for Kona in one of these races, expect that you'll need to be at least as fast as the time in your division on this table. Probably faster; qualifying times get faster every year. See the complete list of Qualifiers and Finish Times by Race and Age Group for complete details. Also see our Analysis of Kona Slots per Age Group and our Allocation of Kona Slots by Event and Age Group graphs.

How do Kona qualifying times compare with average times by age group across all 25 races?




Preparing to Qualify

For advice and guidance, see our complete Complete Kona Coverage, and our book  Qualifying for Kona.

Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis

For the latest, see 

Ironman 70.3 St. George 2014 Results Analysis

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Ironman 70.3 St. George, a beautiful but tough long-distance triathlon, took place under almost perfect conditions, resulting in an average finish time of 6:24 (we were close; we had projected 6:30, see below). At 6:24, it's one of the toughest Ironman 70.3 courses we've analyzed, and much slower than the average 6:00 finish time for all events.

The splits times as a percent of total were almost exactly what our models predict: 50% of time on the bike. Also note our correlation between bike and run splits for all finishers; results are significantly more bunched together, and with a higher R^2 than in 2012. Far more remarkable was the difference in DNF rates and finishers:
  • Ironman 140.6 St. George 2012: 29% DNF; 1,022 finishers
  • Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013: 4% DNF; 2,105 finishers
Ironman 70.3 St. George 2013 Results Analysis











Pre-Race Ironman 70.3 Results Analysis Projections

In recent years, the full 140.6 mile Ironman St. George event had been one of the toughest courses on the Ironman circuit. For 2013, the race is now an Ironman 70.3 distance, and it's now the US. Pro Championship race.

The change brought up an interesting question: with Ironman St. George now a 70.3 mile event, effectively half the old race, what finish times could be expected?

We projected an overall finish time of 6:30 (see below), and we were within 1% or so: the actual result was 6:24 (see above).

In the past, we've presents results analysis of Ironman St. George 2010, 2011 and 2012, and we've also conducted in-depth analysis of 15 pairings of similar Ironman 140.6 and Ironman 70.3 events to predict average finish time at one distance based on actual results at another. Combining these analytics, here are the results.

Projections for Ironman 70.3 St. George
  • Average finish time will be around 6 hours, 30 minutes
  • Swim: 45 minutes (expected to be 53% of average 2010 to 2013 swim split)
  • Bike: 3:19 (expected to be 48% of average 2010 to 2013 bike split)
  • Run: 2:15  (expected to be 44% of average 2010 to 2013 run split)
  • Transitions: 0:11 (or about 80% of 2010-2012 splits)
Scroll further down the post to see a detailed set of predictions, by age group, by split, and overall. 







Detailed Analysis of Ironman St. George 2010 to 2012








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Ironman Lake Tahoe DNF (Did Not Finish) Rates Analysis: Comparison with Other Ironman Race DNF Rates

As Featured by Triathlete Magazine Online Edition
By Raymond Britt

The inaugural Ironman Lake Tahoe 2013 crushed triathletes beyond their wildest expectations, with a record-breaking high average finish time of 14 hours and 6 minutes, easily making it the toughest of the RunTri's Ranking of the Top 30 Toughest Ironman Races.

The venue featured breathtaking scenery, but at the end of the day, the views were not much consolation to the 20% who did not finish the race. Fast Facts:
  • Registered Entrants: 2700+
  • Did Not Start: 565 (21%)
  • Finishers: 1,719
  • DNF of Race Starters: 20+%; DNF on Bike: 267 (12%); DNF on Run: 182 (8%)
The stunning results at Ironman Lake Tahoe seemed to have the triathlon community buzzing (thousands of visitors from 800 cities visited our site's analysis, see map above, and interactive map at end of article): Did you hear what happened at Lake Tahoe? Did you hear about the weather? Did you hear about the DNFs?

Ultimately the biggest question seemed to be: How Ironman Lake Tahoe DNF Rates Compare With DNFs at Other Ironman Events?

The answers may surprise you.
  1. Yes, Ironman Lake Tahoe Was a Punishing Race, and Some Age Groups Suffered More than Others
  2. Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNF Rate falls far short of the 29% recorded at Ironman St. George in 2012, BUT . . .
  3. There's No Guarantee that Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 Will see 20% DNF, Too; Conditions and DNFs Vary by Year. 
1. Yes, Ironman Lake Tahoe Was a Punishing Race, and Some Age Groups Suffered More than Others

Let's start with our analysis of Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNFs: overall, by age group, and within age groups, DNF rates on the bike or run.





2. Ironman Lake Tahoe's DNF Rate falls far short of the 29% recorded at Ironman St. George in 2012, BUT . . . 

But when Ironman St. George is eliminated from the comparison, Lake Tahoe's DNF rate is highest.  Among other high DNF events, Louisville and Texas don't come close to LT's 20%.



3. There's No Guarantee that Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 Will see 20% DNF, Too; Conditions and DNFs Vary by Year. 

Our Multi-Year Analysis of DNFs Overall (at Ironman Wisconsin) and by Age Groups (at Ironman Lake Placid) clearly illustrate that DNF rates can vary significantly from year to year.




Which leaves a couple of thousand athletes wondering: should I sign up for Ironman Lake Tahoe next year? If you like the area, the course, and are well-prepared, I'd suggest you sign up for this great race. 

Worried that next year may see 20% DNF again? Sure, it might happen. But I'd not be surprised to see a different DNF rate, more likely to be lower than higher, based on our Ironman Wisconsin and Iron Lake Placid analysis.

Still on the fence? Final thought -- whether DNF rate is 10%, 15% or 20% -- if it were easy, they wouldn't call it an Ironman. Don't be scared by DNF rates, I'd tell you. Prepare vigorously with expectations to be among the 80% of Finishers. 

Go Ahead. Sign up for 2014. Crush the course next time.

RB